Senate Balance 2020
Both sides have accused the other of fascism. Surely you have a view on which side is right. We can all agree that this is the most important election of our lifetimes. I hate that advertising sways elections, but it does. If you want to see a future free from fascism, you have an obligation to tithe for freedom. Give 10% of your income, preferably pre-tax, max $2,800 per candidate, to Senate campaigns that will help ensure that fascism can take no root in the cradle of Liberty.
Both sides have also cast doubt on the results of the election. It is critical that you VOTE. Early and verified if possible. Early at a drop box if that is not possible. On election day if neither is possible. Or, if none of those is possible, by mail as early as possible.
Vulnerable To Flip
| State | Incumbent Party | Polls | Poll Margin | Links | Money | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Republican | tied, limited data | ? | Wikipedia | Evolving Rapidly | Generally Alaska is safe for Republicans. It has become heated, though, with millions of dollars in campaign cash rolling in on both sides since RBG's death. Lisa Murkowski, the incumbent Republican, has declared that she will oppose a SCOTUS appointment. |
| Colorado | Republican | 50.7D, 43.3R | 7.4D | Wikipedia | ||
| Georgia | Republican | 42.4D, 44.4R | 2R | Wikipedia | The closeness of the polls may not reflect realistic likelihood of winning. Georgia is generally safe for Republicans, and may be particularly so this year. | |
| Iowa | Republican | 44.8D, 44.8R | 0 | Wikipedia | ||
| Kansas | Republican | 44D, 46R (limited polling) | 2R | Wikipedia | ||
| Maine | Republican | 48.4D, 43.0R | 5.4R | Wikipedia | The well-known incumbent is Susan Collins (R). | |
| Michigan | Democrat | 46.8D, 41.6R | 5.2D | Wikipedia | John James (R) has the money advantage by about 10% ($500k). | |
| Montana | Republican | 45.5D, 47.5R | 2R | Wikipedia | ||
| New Mexico | Democrat | 49D, 40R (limited polling) | 9D | Wikipedia | ||
| North Carolina | Republican | 47.2D, 41.2R | 6D | Wikipedia | ||
| South Carolina | Republican | |||||
| Texas | Republican |
Possibility to Flip
Current balance is 53:47
Probable to Flip
Using my boundary for choosing states with uncertain outcomes (leader has less than a 10 point lead), the following states can be counted. That does not mean that it is OK to give up. Your side should stay in fight until the end, and especially at the polls.
- Alabama will flip from Democrat to Republican: R+1
- Arizona will flip from Republican to Democrat: D+1
Unlikely to Flip
- New Hampshire is secure for the incumbent (D): +0
- Idaho is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
- Kentucky is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
- Minnesota is secure for the incumbent (D): +0
- Mississippi is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
- New Jersey is secure for the incumbent (D): +0
- Oklahoma is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
- Virginia is safe for the incumbent (D): +0
Possible to Flip
These are the states that appear in the "Vulnerable to Flip" table, above.
Insufficient Data
Additionally, the following states are having a Sente vote this year but did not have polling data readily available and will require more research: Oregon, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Illinois, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, West Virginia, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Delaware
FWIW, I think these are not heavily polled because they are secure with the incumbent party.