Senate Balance 2020

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Races That May Shift The Balance

Very Close Races (+2D?)
State Incumbent Party Polls Poll Margin Campaign Sites Links Notes
Alaska Republican 43D, 43R 0 I, R Wikipedia Limited polling data. Competitor is independent.
Georgia Republican 45.8D, 45.8R 0.0 D, R Wikipedia Georgia is generally safe for Republicans.
Iowa Republican 46.6D, 44.0R 2.6D D, R Wikipedia
Montana Republican 43.5D, 48.5R 5.0R D, R Wikipedia
North Carolina Republican 47.8D, 43.8R 4.0D D, R Wikipedia Tillis (R) has COVID-19, Cunningham (D) caught cheating.
South Carolina Republican 45.7D, 46.3R 0.6R D, R Wikipedia Lindsey Graham (R) is the well-known incumbent.
Close Races (+2D)
State Incumbent Party Polls Poll Margin Campaign Sites Links Notes
Colorado Republican 50.0D, 44.0R 6.0D D, R Wikipedia
Kansas Republican 43D, 50R 7R D, R Wikipedia One recent poll.
Maine Republican 47.6D, 42.2R 5.4D D, R Wikipedia Susan Collins (R) is the well-known incumbent.
Michigan Democrat 48.4D, 42.8R 5.6D D, R Wikipedia
New Mexico Democrat 49D, 40R 9.0D D, R Wikipedia limited polling data
Texas Republican 40.8D, 47.6R 6.8R D, R Wikipedia Early voter suppression in high population areas improving Republican chances.

Contribution Limits

Each individual can give a maximum of $2,800 per candidate. See the "Campaign Sites" column in the table above for a path to contributing.

Voting

Given the pandemic and the reduced number of polling places, you should vote early if you can to leave room for those who cannot vote early. With the questionable state of postal service and mail-in ballot counting, it is best to vote via early polling or drop-box.

  1. Vote early at an ID-checking early polling place if possible.
  2. Vote early at a drop box if that is not possible.
  3. Vote on election day if neither is possible.
  4. If none of those is possible, vote by mail as early as possible.

Possibility to Flip

Current Balance

Current balance is 53:47, meaning 3 net D-flips are needed for an even balance. The VP casts the tie-breaking vote, so either 4 or 2 net D-flips would result in a VP-proof majority, depending on your preferred side.

Probable to Flip

These states appear likely to flip with more than a 10 point margin for the competitor to the incumbent.

  1. Alabama will flip from Democrat to Republican.
  2. Arizona will flip from Republican to Democrat.

Close Races

See the "Close Races" tables, above.

Unlikely to Flip

These states are unlikely to flip, with the incumbent having a lead of greater than 10%.

  1. New Hampshire (D)
  2. Idaho (R)
  3. Kentucky (R)
  4. Minnesota (D)
  5. Mississippi (R)
  6. New Jersey (D)
  7. Oklahoma (R)
  8. Virginia (D)

Insufficient Data

The following states are having a Senate vote this year but did not have polling data readily available and will require more research:

  1. Arkansas
  2. Delaware
  3. Illinois
  4. Louisiana
  5. Massachusetts
  6. Nebraska
  7. Oregon
  8. Rhode Island
  9. South Dakota
  10. Tennessee
  11. West Virginia
  12. Wyoming

A brief look suggests these are not heavily polled because they are secure with the incumbent party.