Senate Balance 2020

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Both sides have accused the other of fascism. Whichever side is right, we can all agree that this is the most important election of our lifetimes. I hate that advertising sways elections, but it does. If you want to see a future free from fascism, you have an obligation to tithe for freedom. Give 10% of your income, including realized and unrealized capital gains, pre-tax, max $2,800 per candidate, to Senate campaigns that will help ensure that fascism can take no root in the cradle of Liberty.

Both sides have also cast doubt on the results of the election. It is critical that you VOTE and get everyone you know to vote. Given the pandemic and the reduced number of polling places, it is also important that you avoid the polls on election day if you can, to leave room for those who cannot vote early.

  1. Vote early at an ID-checking early polling place if possible.
  2. Vote early at a drop box if that is not possible.
  3. Vote on election day if neither is possible.
  4. If none of those is possible, vote by mail as early as possible.

Highly Vulnerable

State Incumbent Party Polls Poll Margin Links Notes
Alaska Republican tied ? Wikipedia Limited polling data. Generally Alaska is safe for Republicans. It has become heated since RBG's death.
Georgia Republican 42.4D, 44.4R 2.0R Wikipedia Georgia is generally safe for Republicans.
Iowa Republican 44.8D, 44.8R 0 Wikipedia
Kansas Republican 44D, 46R 2.0R Wikipedia limited polling data
Montana Republican 45.5D, 47.5R 2.0R Wikipedia
South Carolina Republican 46.5D, 47.0R 0.5R Wikipedia Lindsey Graham (R) is the well-known incumbent.

Vulnerable

State Incumbent Party Polls Poll Margin Links Notes
Colorado Republican 50.7D, 43.3R 7.4D Wikipedia
Maine Republican 48.4D, 43.0R 5.4D Wikipedia Susan Collins (R) is the well-known incumbent.
Michigan Democrat 46.8D, 41.6R 5.2D Wikipedia
New Mexico Democrat 49D, 40R (limited polling) 9.0D Wikipedia
North Carolina Republican 47.2D, 41.2R 6.0D Wikipedia
Texas Republican 39.8D, 45.6R 5.8R Wikipedia John Cornyn (R) is the well-known incumbent.

Possibility to Flip

Current balance is 53:47, meaning 3 are needed for an even balance. The VP casts the tie-breaking vote, so one more is needed for a VP-proof majority.

Probable to Flip

These states appear likely to flip with more than a 10 point margin for the competitor to the incumbent.

  1. Alabama will flip from Democrat to Republican: R+1
  2. Arizona will flip from Republican to Democrat: D+1

Vulnerable to Flip

These are the states that appear in the "Vulnerable to Flip" table, above.

Unlikely to Flip

These states are unlikely to flip, with the incumbent having a lead of greater than 10%.

  1. New Hampshire (D)
  2. Idaho (R)
  3. Kentucky (R)
  4. Minnesota (D)
  5. Mississippi (R)
  6. New Jersey (D)
  7. Oklahoma (R)
  8. Virginia (D)

Insufficient Data

Additionally, the following states are having a Senate vote this year but did not have polling data readily available and will require more research: Oregon, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Illinois, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, West Virginia, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Delaware

FWIW, I think these are not heavily polled because they are secure with the incumbent party.