Senate Balance 2020
Both sides have accused the other of fascism. Surely you have a view on which side is right.
We can all agree that this is the most important election of our lifetimes. I hate that advertising sways elections, but it does. If you want to see a future free from fascism, you have an obligation to tithe for freedom. Give 10% of your income, including realized and unrealized capital gains, pre-tax, max $2,800 per candidate, to Senate campaigns that will help ensure that fascism can take no root in the cradle of Liberty.
Both sides have also cast doubt on the results of the election. It is critical that you VOTE and get everyone you know to vote. Given the pandemic, it is also important that you avoid the polls on election day to leave room for those who cannot vote early. Vote early at an ID-checking early polling place if possible. Early at a drop box if that is not possible. On election day if neither is possible. Or, if none of those is possible, by mail as early as possible.
Highly Vulnerable
| State | Incumbent Party | Polls | Poll Margin | Links | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Republican | tied | ? | Wikipedia | Limited polling data. Generally Alaska is safe for Republicans. It has become heated since RBG's death. |
| Georgia | Republican | 42.4D, 44.4R | 2.0R | Wikipedia | Georgia is generally safe for Republicans. |
| Iowa | Republican | 44.8D, 44.8R | 0 | Wikipedia | |
| Kansas | Republican | 44D, 46R | 2.0R | Wikipedia | limited polling data |
| Montana | Republican | 45.5D, 47.5R | 2.0R | Wikipedia | |
| South Carolina | Republican | 46.5D, 47.0R | 0.5R | Wikipedia | Lindsey Graham (R) is the well-known incumbent. |
Vulnerable
| State | Incumbent Party | Polls | Poll Margin | Links | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | Republican | 50.7D, 43.3R | 7.4D | Wikipedia | |
| Maine | Republican | 48.4D, 43.0R | 5.4D | Wikipedia | Susan Collins (R) is the well-known incumbent. |
| Michigan | Democrat | 46.8D, 41.6R | 5.2D | Wikipedia | |
| New Mexico | Democrat | 49D, 40R (limited polling) | 9.0D | Wikipedia | |
| North Carolina | Republican | 47.2D, 41.2R | 6.0D | Wikipedia | |
| Texas | Republican | 39.8D, 45.6R | 5.8R | Wikipedia | John Cornyn (R) is the well-known incumbent. |
Possibility to Flip
Current balance is 53:47, meaning 3 are needed for an even balance. The VP casts the tie-breaking vote, so one more is needed for a VP-proof majority.
Probable to Flip
Using my boundary for choosing states with uncertain outcomes (leader has less than a 10 point lead), the following states can be counted. That does not mean that it is OK to give up. Your side should stay in fight until the end, and especially at the polls.
- Alabama will flip from Democrat to Republican: R+1
- Arizona will flip from Republican to Democrat: D+1
Vulnerable to Flip
These are the states that appear in the "Vulnerable to Flip" table, above.
Unlikely to Flip
- New Hampshire is secure for the incumbent (D)
- Idaho is secure for the incumbent (R)
- Kentucky is secure for the incumbent (R)
- Minnesota is secure for the incumbent (D)
- Mississippi is secure for the incumbent (R)
- New Jersey is secure for the incumbent (D)
- Oklahoma is secure for the incumbent (R)
- Virginia is safe for the incumbent (D)
Insufficient Data
Additionally, the following states are having a Senate vote this year but did not have polling data readily available and will require more research: Oregon, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Illinois, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, West Virginia, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Delaware
FWIW, I think these are not heavily polled because they are secure with the incumbent party.