Senate Balance 2020

Both sides have accused the other of fascism. Surely you have a view on which side is right.

We can all agree that this is the most important election of our lifetimes. I hate that advertising sways elections, but it does. If you want to see a future free from fascism, you have an obligation to tithe for freedom. Give 10% of your income, including realized and unrealized capital gains, pre-tax, max $2,800 per candidate, to Senate campaigns that will help ensure that fascism can take no root in the cradle of Liberty.

Both sides have also cast doubt on the results of the election. It is critical that you VOTE and get everyone you know to vote. Early and verified if possible. Early at a drop box if that is not possible. On election day if neither is possible. Or, if none of those is possible, by mail as early as possible.

Vulnerable To Flip

State	Incumbent Party	Polls	Poll Margin	Links	Money	Notes
Alaska	Republican	tied, limited data	?	Wikipedia	Evolving Rapidly	Generally Alaska is safe for Republicans. It has become heated, though, with millions of dollars in campaign cash rolling in on both sides since RBG's death. Lisa Murkowski, the incumbent Republican, has declared that she will oppose a SCOTUS appointment.
Colorado	Republican	50.7D, 43.3R	7.4D	Wikipedia
Georgia	Republican	42.4D, 44.4R	2.0R	Wikipedia		The closeness of the polls may not reflect realistic likelihood of winning. Georgia is generally safe for Republicans, and may be particularly so this year.
Iowa	Republican	44.8D, 44.8R	0	Wikipedia
Kansas	Republican	44D, 46R (limited polling)	2.0R	Wikipedia
Maine	Republican	48.4D, 43.0R	5.4D	Wikipedia		Susan Collins (R) is the well-known incumbent.
Michigan	Democrat	46.8D, 41.6R	5.2D	Wikipedia	John James (R) has the money advantage by about 10% ($500k).
Montana	Republican	45.5D, 47.5R	2.0R	Wikipedia
New Mexico	Democrat	49D, 40R (limited polling)	9.0D	Wikipedia
North Carolina	Republican	47.2D, 41.2R	6.0D	Wikipedia
South Carolina	Republican	46.5D, 47.0R	0.5R	Wikipedia		Lindsey Graham (R) is the well-known incumbent.
Texas	Republican	39.8D, 45.6R	5.8R	Wikipedia		John Cornyn (R) is the well-known incumbent.

Possibility to Flip

Current balance is 53:47, meaning 3 are needed to tie, 4 are needed for a VP-proof majority.

If we ignore Alaska, which is unlikely to flip, and Iowa, which is hard to call, and count the remainder on the poll margin, we get 5D and 5R - meaning the Senate would not flip. Trying other measures, like setting a threshold of 5%, still results in the Senate not flipping. The Senate gives equal representation to states regardless of population. There are more states that vote Republican than Democrat. In the current context, it would be rare to have a Democrat-controlled Senate.

Probable to Flip

Using my boundary for choosing states with uncertain outcomes (leader has less than a 10 point lead), the following states can be counted. That does not mean that it is OK to give up. Your side should stay in fight until the end, and especially at the polls.

1. Alabama will flip from Democrat to Republican: R+1
2. Arizona will flip from Republican to Democrat: D+1

Unlikely to Flip

1. New Hampshire is secure for the incumbent (D): +0
2. Idaho is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
3. Kentucky is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
4. Minnesota is secure for the incumbent (D): +0
5. Mississippi is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
6. New Jersey is secure for the incumbent (D): +0
7. Oklahoma is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
8. Virginia is safe for the incumbent (D): +0

Possible to Flip

These are the states that appear in the "Vulnerable to Flip" table, above.

Insufficient Data

Additionally, the following states are having a Sente vote this year but did not have polling data readily available and will require more research: Oregon, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Illinois, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, West Virginia, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Delaware

FWIW, I think these are not heavily polled because they are secure with the incumbent party.