Senate Balance 2020

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Vulnerable To Flip

State	Incumbent Party	Poll Balance	Links	Money	Notes
Alaska	Republican	tied, limited data	Wikipedia	Evolving Rapidly	Generally Alaska is safe for Republicans. It has become heated, though, with millions rolling in on both sides since RBG's death. Lisa Murkowski, the incumbent Republican, has declared that she will oppose a SCOTUS appointment.
Colorado	Republican	50.7D, 43.3R	Wikipedia
Georgia	Republican	42.4 D, 44.4 R	Wikipedia		The closeness of the polls may not reflect realistic likelihood of winning. Georgia is generally safe for Republicans, and may be particularly so this year.
Iowa	Republican	44.8 D, 44.8 R	Wikipedia
Kansas	Republican	44 D, 46 R (limited polling)	Wikipedia
Maine	Republican
Michigan	Democrat	46.8 D, 41.6 R	Wikipedia	John James (R) has the money advantage by about 10% ($500k).
Montana	Republican
New Mexico	Democrat	49 D, 40 R (limited polling)	Wikipedia
North Carolina	Republican
South Carolina	Republican
Texas	Republican

Possibility to Flip

Current balance is 53:47

Probable to Flip

Using my boundary for choosing states with uncertain outcomes (leader has less than a 10 point lead), the following states can be counted. That does not mean that it is OK to give up. Your side should stay in fight until the end, and especially at the polls.

1. Alabama will flip from Democrat to Republican: R+1
2. Arizona will flip from Republican to Democrat: D+1

Unlikely to Flip

1. New Hampshire is secure for the incumbent (D): +0
2. Idaho is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
3. Kentucky is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
4. Minnesota is secure for the incumbent (D): +0
5. Mississippi is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
6. New Jersey is secure for the incumbent (D): +0
7. Oklahoma is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
8. Virginia is safe for the incumbent (D): +0

Possible to Flip

These are the states that appear in the "Vulnerable to Flip" table, above.

Insufficient Data

Additionally, the following states are having a Sente vote this year but did not have polling data readily available and will require more research: Oregon, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Illinois, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, West Virginia, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Delaware

FWIW, I think these are not heavily polled because they are secure with the incumbent party.