Senate Balance 2020: Difference between revisions

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== Probable to Flip ==
== Probable to Flip ==
Using my boundary for choosing states with uncertain outcomes (leader has less than a 10 point lead), the following states can be counted. That does not mean that it is OK to give up. Your side should stay in fight until the end, and especially at the polls.
# Alabama will flip from Democrat to Republican: R+1
# Alabama will flip from Democrat to Republican: R+1
# Arizona will flip from Republican to Democrat: D+1
# Arizona will flip from Republican to Democrat: D+1

Revision as of 19:50, 26 September 2020

Both sides have accused the other of fascism. Surely you have a view on which side is right. We can all agree that this is the most important election of our lifetimes. I hate that advertising sways elections, but it does. If you want to see a future free from fascism, you have an obligation to tithe for freedom. Give 10% of your income, preferably pre-tax, max $2,800 per candidate, to Senate campaigns that will help ensure that fascism can take no root in the cradle of Liberty.


Vulnerable To Flip

State Incumbent Party Poll Balance Links Money Notes
Alaska Republican tied, limited data Wikipedia Evolving Rapidly Generally Alaska is safe for Republicans. It has become heated, though, with millions rolling in on both sides since RBG's death. Lisa Murkowski, the incumbent Republican, has declared that she will oppose a SCOTUS appointment.
Colorado Republican 50.7D, 43.3R Wikipedia
Georgia Republican 42.4 D, 44.4 R Wikipedia The closeness of the polls may not reflect realistic likelihood of winning. Georgia is generally safe for Republicans, and may be particularly so this year.
Iowa Republican 44.8 D, 44.8 R Wikipedia
Kansas Republican 44 D, 46 R (limited polling) Wikipedia
Maine Republican
Michigan Democrat 46.8 D, 41.6 R Wikipedia John James (R) has the money advantage by about 10% ($500k).
Montana Republican
New Mexico Democrat 49 D, 40 R (limited polling) Wikipedia
North Carolina Republican
South Carolina Republican
Texas Republican


Possibility to Flip

Current balance is 53:47

Probable to Flip

Using my boundary for choosing states with uncertain outcomes (leader has less than a 10 point lead), the following states can be counted. That does not mean that it is OK to give up. Your side should stay in fight until the end, and especially at the polls.

  1. Alabama will flip from Democrat to Republican: R+1
  2. Arizona will flip from Republican to Democrat: D+1

Unlikely to Flip

  1. New Hampshire is secure for the incumbent (D): +0
  2. Idaho is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
  3. Kentucky is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
  4. Minnesota is secure for the incumbent (D): +0
  5. Mississippi is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
  6. New Jersey is secure for the incumbent (D): +0
  7. Oklahoma is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
  8. Virginia is safe for the incumbent (D): +0

Possible to Flip

These are the states that appear in the "Vulnerable to Flip" table.

Insufficient Data

Additionally, the following states are having a Sente vote this year but did not have polling data readily available and will require more research: Oregon, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Illinois, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, West Virginia, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Delaware

FWIW, I think these are not heavily polled because they are secure with the incumbent party.