Senate Balance 2020: Difference between revisions

From Traxel Wiki
Jump to navigation Jump to search
No edit summary
No edit summary
Line 1: Line 1:
We can all agree that this is the most important election of our lifetimes. Both sides have accused the other of fascism. Surely you have a view on which is right. If you want to see a future free from fascism, you have an obligation to tithe for freedom. Give 10% of your income, preferably pre-tax, max $2,800 per candidate, to Senate campaigns that will help ensure that fascism can take no root in the cradle of Liberty.
Both sides have accused the other of fascism. We can all agree that this is the most important election of our lifetimes. Surely you have a view on which side is right. If you want to see a future free from fascism, you have an obligation to tithe for freedom. Give 10% of your income, preferably pre-tax, max $2,800 per candidate, to Senate campaigns that will help ensure that fascism can take no root in the cradle of Liberty.


= Likelihood to Flip =
= Likelihood to Flip =

Revision as of 19:24, 26 September 2020

Both sides have accused the other of fascism. We can all agree that this is the most important election of our lifetimes. Surely you have a view on which side is right. If you want to see a future free from fascism, you have an obligation to tithe for freedom. Give 10% of your income, preferably pre-tax, max $2,800 per candidate, to Senate campaigns that will help ensure that fascism can take no root in the cradle of Liberty.

Likelihood to Flip

Current balance is 53:47

  1. Alabama will flip from Democrat to Republican: R+1
  2. Alaska has minimal poll data, the most recent poll showed a tie between the incumbent (R) and the challenger (D), but it's not very credible. Generally Alaska is safe for Republicans. It has become heated, though, so I'm deferring it to the list below.
  3. Arizona will flip from Republican to Democrat: D+1
  4. Colorado may flip from R to D - deferred to the list below.
  5. Georgia may flip from R to D - deferred to the list below.
  6. Idaho is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
  7. Iowa may flip from R to D - deferred to the list below.
  8. Kansas may flip from R (retired) to D - deferred to the list below.
  9. Kentucky is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
  10. Maine may flip from R to D - deferred to the list below.
  11. Michigan may flip from D to R - deferred to the list below.
  12. Minnesota is secure for the incumbent (D): +0
  13. Mississippi is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
  14. Montana may flip from R to D - deferred to the list below.
  15. New Hampshire is secure for the incumbent (D): +0
  16. New Jersey is secure for the incumbent (D): +0
  17. New Mexico may flip from D to R - deferred to the list below.
  18. North Carolina may flip from R to D - deferred to the list below.
  19. Oklahoma is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
  20. South Carolina may flip from R to D - deferred to the list below.
  21. Texas may flip from R to D - deferred to the list below.
  22. Virginia is safe for the incumbent (D): +0

Additionally, the following states are having a Sente vote this year but did not have polling data readily available and will require more research: Oregon, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Illinois, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, West Virginia, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Delaware

Vulnerable To Flip

State Incumbent Party Poll Balance Links Money Notes
Michigan Democrat 46.8 D, 41.6 R Wikipedia John James (R) has the money advantage by about 10% ($500k).
New Mexico Democrat 49 D, 40 R (limited polling) Wikipedia
Alaska Republican tied, limited data Wikipedia Evolving Rapidly Generally Alaska is safe for Republicans. It has become heated, though, with millions rolling in on both sides since RBG's death. Lisa Murkowski, the incumbent Republican, has declared that she will oppose a SCOTUS appointment.
Colorado Republican 50.7D, 43.3R Wikipedia
Georgia Republican 42.4 D, 44.4 R Wikipedia The closeness of the polls may not reflect realistic likelihood of winning. Georgia is generally safe for Republicans, and may be particularly so this year.
Iowa Republican 44.8 D, 44.8 R Wikipedia
Kansas Republican 44 D, 46 R (limited polling) Wikipedia
Maine Republican
Montana Republican
North Carolina Republican
South Carolina Republican
Texas Republican