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Links

• World Mortality: https://github.com/akarlinsky/world_mortality
• US Suicide 2022: https://old.reddit.com/r/news/comments/15nsu5v/nearly_50000_americans_died_by_suicide_in_2022_a/
• Gun Homicide
  • Overall: 5.87 per 100k (329mm)
  • Black Males: 47 per 100k (22.7mm)
  • All Others: 2.8 per 100k (306mm)
  • All Males: 4.1 per 100k (139mm)
  • Black Males 20 - 34: 109 per 100k (5.53mm)
• Cars
  • 282,366,290 registered vehicles: https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/
  • 91.55% of households have access to at least one vehicle: https://www.valuepenguin.com/auto-insurance/car-ownership-statistics
    • 35% in DC, 29% in NY, households without a vehicle
  • 124,010,992 households in the US: https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/HSD410221
    • 2.60 persons per household
  • 2021: 16 year high at 42,915 traffic crash fatalities: https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/early-estimate-2021-traffic-fatalities
  • 232.8mm drivers (18.43 deaths per 100k drivers)
  • US Population 335mm (12.8 deaths per 100k people)
• vegan / pro-life, anti-gun / anti-car, religious freedom / lgbtq freedom
• Pigs
  • Pig Puzzle: https://old.reddit.com/r/aww/comments/8f1r62/pig_puzzle/
  • Pig Friend: https://old.reddit.com/r/aww/comments/ciazd7/so_my_dad_surprised_my_sister_with_a_baby_pig_and/
  • Pig Lassie: https://old.reddit.com/r/aww/comments/cot0oi/my_pet_pig_used_to_explore_the_backyard_as_i/
  • Pig Family: https://old.reddit.com/r/aww/comments/q5gvg7/a_whole_family_of_pigs_going_on_an_adventure/
  • Pig Cat Play: https://old.reddit.com/r/aww/comments/13dn2b2/pig_playing_with_the_cats/
  • Pig Search: https://old.reddit.com/r/aww/search?q=pig&restrict_sr=on
  • Pig Splash: https://old.reddit.com/r/aww/comments/pgvspr/ridiculously_happy_pigs_running_in_and_out_of_the/
  • Pig Vacuum: https://old.reddit.com/r/aww/comments/nn7bu1/pig_annoyed_by_vacuum_keeps_unplugging_it/

IPH

• "Risk Factors for Male Perpetration and Female Victimization of Intimate Partner Homicide: A Meta-Analysis": https://legislature.vermont.gov/Documents/2022/WorkGroups/House%20Judiciary/Bills/H.133/Witness%20Documents/H.133~Sarah%20Robinson~Risk%20Factors%20for%20Male%20Perpretration%20and%20Femal%20Victimization%20of%20Intimate%20Partner%20Homicide-%20A%20Meta-Analysis~2-23-2021.pdf
  • 11x as likely with access to a gun
• IPH Stats: https://www.ojp.gov/pdffiles1/jr000250.pdf
• 10mm victims experience domestic violence annually: https://zontausa.org/us-national-statistic-on-domestic-violence-2020/
• 2,237 cases of IPH annually (2017): https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/12/us/domestic-violence-victims.html

So, extremely roughly:

• 2,000 cases with access to a gun, 200 cases without.
• 20 per 100k with access to a gun.
• 2 per 100k without access to a gun.
• worst case 18 per 100k due to access to a gun. (could also be killers are more likely to have access to a gun - so maybe 10 - 15 per 100k is the realistic case)
• 10mm abusers annually
• 44% of households have guns
• 4mm abusers with guns kill 2,000 people (with roughly 1500 being avoidable)
• Each abuser has a 1:2000 chance of being a killer if they have a gun.

homicide:

• annual homicides: 26,031 or 7.8 per 100k
• annual gun homicides: 20,958 (81%)
• Population 350mm
• Each random person has at most a 1:13,461 chance of being a killer.
• domestic abuser without a gun is 1:20,000 to kill partner
• domestic abuser with a gun is 1:2,000 to kill partner
• domestic abuser with a gun is 1:1,346 to kill anyone (extremely rough)
• Which recapitulates the earlier stat: 10x as likely to kill. I think that's just how I mathed it, not an actual statistic.