Senate Balance 2020: Difference between revisions
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(Broke out the seats that are vulnerable to flipping.) |
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Oregon, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Illinois, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, West Virginia, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Delaware | Oregon, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Illinois, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, West Virginia, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Delaware | ||
= Vulnerable | = Vulnerable To Flip = | ||
== Democrat == | == Democrat == | ||
# Michigan | # Michigan | ||
# Montana | # Montana | ||
# New Mexico | # New Mexico | ||
# Texas | # Texas | ||
== Republican == | == Republican == | ||
# Alaska has minimal poll data, the most recent poll showed a tie between the incumbent (R) and the challenger (D), but it's not very credible. Generally Alaska is safe for Republicans. It has become heated, though, so I'm deferring it to the list below. | # Alaska has minimal poll data, the most recent poll showed a tie between the incumbent (R) and the challenger (D), but it's not very credible. Generally Alaska is safe for Republicans. It has become heated, though, so I'm deferring it to the list below. | ||
# Colorado | # Colorado | ||
# Georgia | # Georgia | ||
# Iowa | # Iowa | ||
# Kansas | # Kansas | ||
# Maine | # Maine | ||
# North Carolina | # North Carolina | ||
# South Carolina | # South Carolina | ||
Revision as of 18:08, 26 September 2020
Likelihood to Flip
Current balance is 53:47
- Alabama will flip from Democrat to Republican: R+1
- Alaska has minimal poll data, the most recent poll showed a tie between the incumbent (R) and the challenger (D), but it's not very credible. Generally Alaska is safe for Republicans. It has become heated, though, so I'm deferring it to the list below.
- Arizona will flip from Republican to Democrat: D+1
- Colorado may flip from R to D - deferred to the list below.
- Georgia may flip from R to D - deferred to the list below.
- Idaho is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
- Iowa may flip from R to D - deferred to the list below.
- Kansas may flip from R (retired) to D - deferred to the list below.
- Kentucky is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
- Maine may flip from R to D - deferred to the list below.
- Michigan may flip from D to R - deferred to the list below.
- Minnesota is secure for the incumbent (D): +0
- Mississippi is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
- Montana may flip from D to R - deferred to the list below.
- New Hampshire is secure for the incumbent (D): +0
- New Jersey is secure for the incumbent (D): +0
- New Mexico may flip from D to R - deferred to the list below.
- North Carolina may flip from R to D - deferred to the list below.
- Oklahoma is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
- South Carolina may flip from R to D - deferred to the list below.
- Texas may flip from R to D - deferred to the list below.
- Virginia is safe for the incumbent (D): +0
Additionally, the following states are having a Sente vote this year but did not have polling data readily available and will require more research.
Oregon, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Illinois, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, West Virginia, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Delaware
Vulnerable To Flip
Democrat
- Michigan
- Montana
- New Mexico
- Texas
Republican
- Alaska has minimal poll data, the most recent poll showed a tie between the incumbent (R) and the challenger (D), but it's not very credible. Generally Alaska is safe for Republicans. It has become heated, though, so I'm deferring it to the list below.
- Colorado
- Georgia
- Iowa
- Kansas
- Maine
- North Carolina
- South Carolina