Senate Balance 2020

Both sides have accused the other of fascism. Whichever side is right, we can all agree that this is the most important election of our lifetimes. I hate that advertising sways elections, but it does. If you want to see a future free from fascism, you have an obligation to tithe for freedom. Give 10% of your income, including realized and unrealized capital gains, pre-tax, max $2,800 per candidate, to Senate campaigns that will help ensure that fascism can take no root in the cradle of Liberty.

Both sides have also cast doubt on the results of the election. It is critical that you VOTE and get everyone you know to vote. Given the pandemic, it is also important that you avoid the polls on election day to leave room for those who cannot vote early.

1. Vote early at an ID-checking early polling place if possible.
2. Vote early at a drop box if that is not possible.
3. Vote on election day if neither is possible.
4. If none of those is possible, vote by mail as early as possible.

Highly Vulnerable

State	Incumbent Party	Polls	Poll Margin	Links	Notes
Alaska	Republican	tied	?	Wikipedia	Limited polling data. Generally Alaska is safe for Republicans. It has become heated since RBG's death.
Georgia	Republican	42.4D, 44.4R	2.0R	Wikipedia	Georgia is generally safe for Republicans.
Iowa	Republican	44.8D, 44.8R	0	Wikipedia
Kansas	Republican	44D, 46R	2.0R	Wikipedia	limited polling data
Montana	Republican	45.5D, 47.5R	2.0R	Wikipedia
South Carolina	Republican	46.5D, 47.0R	0.5R	Wikipedia	Lindsey Graham (R) is the well-known incumbent.

Vulnerable

State	Incumbent Party	Polls	Poll Margin	Links	Notes
Colorado	Republican	50.7D, 43.3R	7.4D	Wikipedia
Maine	Republican	48.4D, 43.0R	5.4D	Wikipedia	Susan Collins (R) is the well-known incumbent.
Michigan	Democrat	46.8D, 41.6R	5.2D	Wikipedia
New Mexico	Democrat	49D, 40R (limited polling)	9.0D	Wikipedia
North Carolina	Republican	47.2D, 41.2R	6.0D	Wikipedia
Texas	Republican	39.8D, 45.6R	5.8R	Wikipedia	John Cornyn (R) is the well-known incumbent.

Possibility to Flip

Current balance is 53:47, meaning 3 are needed for an even balance. The VP casts the tie-breaking vote, so one more is needed for a VP-proof majority.

Probable to Flip

Using my boundary for choosing states with uncertain outcomes (leader has less than a 10 point lead), the following states can be counted. That does not mean that it is OK to give up. Your side should stay in fight until the end, and especially at the polls.

1. Alabama will flip from Democrat to Republican: R+1
2. Arizona will flip from Republican to Democrat: D+1

Vulnerable to Flip

These are the states that appear in the "Vulnerable to Flip" table, above.

Unlikely to Flip

1. New Hampshire is secure for the incumbent (D)
2. Idaho is secure for the incumbent (R)
3. Kentucky is secure for the incumbent (R)
4. Minnesota is secure for the incumbent (D)
5. Mississippi is secure for the incumbent (R)
6. New Jersey is secure for the incumbent (D)
7. Oklahoma is secure for the incumbent (R)
8. Virginia is safe for the incumbent (D)

Insufficient Data

Additionally, the following states are having a Senate vote this year but did not have polling data readily available and will require more research: Oregon, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Illinois, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, West Virginia, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Delaware

FWIW, I think these are not heavily polled because they are secure with the incumbent party.