Senate Balance 2020

Likelihood to Flip

Current balance is 53:47

1. Alabama will flip from Democrat to Republican: R+1
2. Alaska has minimal poll data, the most recent poll showed a tie between the incumbent (R) and the challenger (D), but it's not very credible. Generally Alaska is safe for Republicans. It has become heated, though, so I'm deferring it to the list below.
3. Arizona will flip from Republican to Democrat: D+1
4. Colorado may flip from R to D - deferred to the list below.
5. Georgia may flip from R to D - deferred to the list below.
6. Idaho is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
7. Iowa may flip from R to D - deferred to the list below.
8. Kansas may flip from R (retired) to D - deferred to the list below.
9. Kentucky is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
10. Maine may flip from R to D - deferred to the list below.
11. Michigan may flip from D to R - deferred to the list below.
12. Minnesota is secure for the incumbent (D): +0
13. Mississippi is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
14. Montana may flip from R to D - deferred to the list below.
15. New Hampshire is secure for the incumbent (D): +0
16. New Jersey is secure for the incumbent (D): +0
17. New Mexico may flip from D to R - deferred to the list below.
18. North Carolina may flip from R to D - deferred to the list below.
19. Oklahoma is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
20. South Carolina may flip from R to D - deferred to the list below.
21. Texas may flip from R to D - deferred to the list below.
22. Virginia is safe for the incumbent (D): +0

Additionally, the following states are having a Sente vote this year but did not have polling data readily available and will require more research: Oregon, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Illinois, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, West Virginia, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Delaware

Vulnerable To Flip

Democrat Incumbent (or retiring)

1. Michigan 46.8 D, 41.6 R, Wikipedia John James (R) has the money advantage by about 10% ($500k).
2. New Mexico 49 D, 40 R (limited polling), Wikipedia

Republican Incumbent (or retiring)

1. Alaska has minimal poll data, the most recent poll showed a tie between the incumbent (R) and the challenger (D), but it's not particularly credible. Generally Alaska is safe for Republicans. It has become heated, though, with millions rolling in on both sides since RBG's death. Lisa Murkowski, the incumbent Republican, has declared that she will oppose a SCOTUS appointment.
2. Colorado 50.7 D, 43.3 R, Wikipedia
3. Georgia 42.4 D, 44.4 R, Wikipedia the closeness of the polls may not reflect realistic likelihood of winning. Georgia is generally safe for Republicans, and may be particularly so this year.
4. Iowa 44.8 D, 44.8 R, Wikipedia
5. Kansas 44 D, 46 R (limited polling), Wikipedia
6. Maine
7. Montana 45.5 D, 47.5 R
8. North Carolina
9. South Carolina
10. Texas

State	Incumbent Party	Poll Balance	Links	Money	Notes
Michigan	Democrat	46.8 D, 41.6 R	Wikipedia	John James (R) has the money advantage by about 10% ($500k).
New Mexico	Democrat	49 D, 40 R (limited polling)	Wikipedia
Alaska	Republican	tied, limited data	Wikipedia	Evolving Rapidly	Generally Alaska is safe for Republicans. It has become heated, though, with millions rolling in on both sides since RBG's death. Lisa Murkowski, the incumbent Republican, has declared that she will oppose a SCOTUS appointment.
Colorado	Republican	50.7D, 43.3R	Wikipedia
Georgia	Republican	42.4 D, 44.4 R	Wikipedia		The closeness of the polls may not reflect realistic likelihood of winning. Georgia is generally safe for Republicans, and may be particularly so this year.
Iowa	Republican	44.8 D, 44.8 R	Wikipedia
Kansas	Republican	44 D, 46 R (limited polling)	Wikipedia
Maine	Republican
Montana	Republican
North Carolina	Republican
South Carolina	Republican
Texas	Republican