Senate Balance 2020: Difference between revisions

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We can all agree that this is the most important election of our lifetimes. I ''hate'' that advertising sways elections, but it does. Each individual can give a maximum of $2,800 per candidate. This election is going to have a massive impact on the future of the United States. Contributing $16,800 to the six candidates under "Very Close Races" won't necessarily have the same ROI as putting it in the stock market, but if they win, you'll get a lot more than $16,800 net yield over the next half decade.


Both sides have cast doubt on the results of the election. It is critical that you '''''VOTE''''' and get everyone you know to vote. Given the pandemic and the reduced number of polling places, it is also important that you avoid the polls on election day if you can, to leave room for those who cannot vote early. Finally, there is some question about whether mail-in votes will arrive in time and whether they will be counted, so get your ballot to your state officials by other means if you can.
= Races That May Shift The Balance =
 
# Vote early at an ID-checking early polling place if possible.
# Vote early at a drop box if that is not possible.
# Vote on election day if neither is possible.
# If none of those is possible, vote by mail as early as possible.
 
= Opportunities to Shift The Balance =


{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
|+
|+
Very Close Races
Very Close Races (+2D?)
!State
!State
!Incumbent Party
!Incumbent Party
Line 23: Line 15:
|Alaska
|Alaska
|Republican
|Republican
|tied
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/alaska/ 37D, 45R]
|?
|8R
|[https://dralgrossak.com/ I], [https://dansullivanforalaska.com/ R]
|[https://dralgrossak.com/ I], [https://dansullivanforalaska.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska|Wikipedia]]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska|Wikipedia]]
Line 31: Line 23:
|Georgia
|Georgia
|Republican
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/georgia/ 42.4D, 44.4R]
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/georgia/ 44.5D, 46.0R]
|2.0R
|1.5R
|[https://electjon.com/ D], [https://perduesenate.com/ R]
|[https://electjon.com/ D], [https://perduesenate.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia|Wikipedia]]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia|Wikipedia]]
Line 39: Line 31:
|Iowa
|Iowa
|Republican
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/iowa/ 44.8D, 44.8R]
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/iowa/ 47.0D, 44.2R]
|0
|2.8D
|[https://greenfieldforiowa.com/ D], [https://joniernst.com/ R]
|[https://greenfieldforiowa.com/ D], [https://joniernst.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa|Wikipedia]]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa|Wikipedia]]
|
|
|-
|Kansas
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/kansas/ 44D, 46R]
|2.0R
|[https://bollierforkansas.com/ D], [https://kansansformarshall.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Kansas|Wikipedia]]
|limited polling data
|-
|-
|Montana
|Montana
|Republican
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/montana/ 45.5D, 47.5R]
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/montana/ 46.0D, 48.0R]
|2.0R
|2.0R
|[https://stevebullock.com/ D], [https://www.stevedaines.com/ R]
|[https://stevebullock.com/ D], [https://www.stevedaines.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Montana|Wikipedia]]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Montana|Wikipedia]]
|
|
|-
|North Carolina
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/north-carolina/ 46.3D, 42.5R]
|3.8D
|[https://www.calfornc.com/ D], [https://www.thomtillis.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina|Wikipedia]]
|Tillis (R) has COVID-19, Cunningham (D) caught cheating.
|-
|-
|South Carolina
|South Carolina
|Republican
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/south-carolina/ 46.5D, 47.0R]
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/south-carolina/ 43.5D, 46.8R]
|0.5R
|3.3R
|[https://jaimeharrison.com/ D], [https://www.lindseygraham.com/ R]
|[https://jaimeharrison.com/ D], [https://www.lindseygraham.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina|Wikipedia]]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina|Wikipedia]]
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{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
|+
|+
Close Races
Close Races (+2D)
!State
!State
!Incumbent Party
!Incumbent Party
Line 83: Line 75:
|Colorado
|Colorado
|Republican
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/colorado/ 50.7D, 43.3R]
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/colorado/ 50.5D, 40.5R]
|7.4D
|10.0D
|[https://hickenlooper.com/ D], [https://www.corygardnerforsenate.com/ R]
|[https://hickenlooper.com/ D], [https://www.corygardnerforsenate.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Colorado|Wikipedia]]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Colorado|Wikipedia]]
|
|
|-
|Kansas
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/kansas/ 43D, 50R]
|7R
|[https://bollierforkansas.com/ D], [https://kansansformarshall.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Kansas|Wikipedia]]
|One recent poll.
|-
|-
|Maine
|Maine
|Republican
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/maine/ 48.4D, 43.0R]
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/maine/ 46.2D, 41.8R]
|5.4D
|4.4D
|[https://saragideon.com/ D], [https://www.susancollins.com/ R]
|[https://saragideon.com/ D], [https://www.susancollins.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Maine|Wikipedia]]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Maine|Wikipedia]]
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|Michigan
|Michigan
|Democrat
|Democrat
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/michigan/ 46.8D, 41.6R]
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/michigan/ 47.0D, 41.7R]
|5.2D
|5.3D
|[https://petersformichigan.com/ D], [https://johnjamesforsenate.com/ R]
|[https://petersformichigan.com/ D], [https://johnjamesforsenate.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Michigan|Wikipedia]]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Michigan|Wikipedia]]
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|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Mexico|Wikipedia]]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Mexico|Wikipedia]]
|limited polling data
|limited polling data
|-
|North Carolina
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/north-carolina/ 47.2D, 41.2R]
|6.0D
|[https://www.calfornc.com/ D], [https://www.thomtillis.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina|Wikipedia]]
|
|-
|-
|Texas
|Texas
|Republican
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/texas/ 39.8D, 45.6R]
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/texas/ 42.2D, 48.2R]
|5.8R
|6.0R
|[https://mjfortexas.com/ D], [https://www.johncornyn.com/ R]
|[https://mjfortexas.com/ D], [https://www.johncornyn.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas|Wikipedia]]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas|Wikipedia]]
|John Cornyn (R) is the well-known incumbent.
|Early voter suppression in high population areas improving Republican chances.
|}
|}
= Contribution Limits =
Each individual can give a maximum of $2,800 per candidate. See the "Campaign Sites" column in the table above for a path to contributing.
= Voting =
Given the pandemic and the reduced number of polling places, you should vote early if you can to leave room for those who cannot vote early. With the questionable state of postal service and mail-in ballot counting, it is best to vote via early polling or drop-box.
# Vote early at an ID-checking early polling place if possible.
# Vote early at a drop box if that is not possible.
# Vote on election day if neither is possible.
# If none of those is possible, vote by mail as early as possible.


= Possibility to Flip =
= Possibility to Flip =


Current balance is 53:47, meaning 3 are needed for an even balance. The VP casts the tie-breaking vote, so one more is needed for a VP-proof majority.
== Current Balance ==
 
Current balance is 53:47, meaning 3 net D-flips are needed for an even balance. The VP casts the tie-breaking vote, so either 4 or 2 net D-flips would result in a VP-proof majority, depending on your preferred side.


== Probable to Flip ==
== Probable to Flip ==
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== Close Races ==
== Close Races ==


These are the states that appear in the "Close Races" tables, above.
See the "Close Races" tables, above.


== Unlikely to Flip ==
== Unlikely to Flip ==
Line 159: Line 166:


== Insufficient Data ==
== Insufficient Data ==
Additionally, the following states are having a Senate vote this year but did not have polling data readily available and will require more research:
The following states are having a Senate vote this year but did not have polling data readily available and will require more research:


# Arkansas
# Arkansas
Line 174: Line 181:
# Wyoming
# Wyoming


FWIW, I think these are not heavily polled because they are secure with the incumbent party.
A brief look suggests these are not heavily polled because they are secure with the incumbent party.

Latest revision as of 02:17, 18 October 2020

Races That May Shift The Balance

Very Close Races (+2D?)
State Incumbent Party Polls Poll Margin Campaign Sites Links Notes
Alaska Republican 37D, 45R 8R I, R Wikipedia Limited polling data. Competitor is independent.
Georgia Republican 44.5D, 46.0R 1.5R D, R Wikipedia Georgia is generally safe for Republicans.
Iowa Republican 47.0D, 44.2R 2.8D D, R Wikipedia
Montana Republican 46.0D, 48.0R 2.0R D, R Wikipedia
North Carolina Republican 46.3D, 42.5R 3.8D D, R Wikipedia Tillis (R) has COVID-19, Cunningham (D) caught cheating.
South Carolina Republican 43.5D, 46.8R 3.3R D, R Wikipedia Lindsey Graham (R) is the well-known incumbent.
Close Races (+2D)
State Incumbent Party Polls Poll Margin Campaign Sites Links Notes
Colorado Republican 50.5D, 40.5R 10.0D D, R Wikipedia
Kansas Republican 43D, 50R 7R D, R Wikipedia One recent poll.
Maine Republican 46.2D, 41.8R 4.4D D, R Wikipedia Susan Collins (R) is the well-known incumbent.
Michigan Democrat 47.0D, 41.7R 5.3D D, R Wikipedia
New Mexico Democrat 49D, 40R 9.0D D, R Wikipedia limited polling data
Texas Republican 42.2D, 48.2R 6.0R D, R Wikipedia Early voter suppression in high population areas improving Republican chances.

Contribution Limits

Each individual can give a maximum of $2,800 per candidate. See the "Campaign Sites" column in the table above for a path to contributing.

Voting

Given the pandemic and the reduced number of polling places, you should vote early if you can to leave room for those who cannot vote early. With the questionable state of postal service and mail-in ballot counting, it is best to vote via early polling or drop-box.

  1. Vote early at an ID-checking early polling place if possible.
  2. Vote early at a drop box if that is not possible.
  3. Vote on election day if neither is possible.
  4. If none of those is possible, vote by mail as early as possible.

Possibility to Flip

Current Balance

Current balance is 53:47, meaning 3 net D-flips are needed for an even balance. The VP casts the tie-breaking vote, so either 4 or 2 net D-flips would result in a VP-proof majority, depending on your preferred side.

Probable to Flip

These states appear likely to flip with more than a 10 point margin for the competitor to the incumbent.

  1. Alabama will flip from Democrat to Republican.
  2. Arizona will flip from Republican to Democrat.

Close Races

See the "Close Races" tables, above.

Unlikely to Flip

These states are unlikely to flip, with the incumbent having a lead of greater than 10%.

  1. New Hampshire (D)
  2. Idaho (R)
  3. Kentucky (R)
  4. Minnesota (D)
  5. Mississippi (R)
  6. New Jersey (D)
  7. Oklahoma (R)
  8. Virginia (D)

Insufficient Data

The following states are having a Senate vote this year but did not have polling data readily available and will require more research:

  1. Arkansas
  2. Delaware
  3. Illinois
  4. Louisiana
  5. Massachusetts
  6. Nebraska
  7. Oregon
  8. Rhode Island
  9. South Dakota
  10. Tennessee
  11. West Virginia
  12. Wyoming

A brief look suggests these are not heavily polled because they are secure with the incumbent party.

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