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[[Category:Socioeconomics]]
[[Category:Socioeconomics]]


Should you wear a mask? What if you're vaccinated (but still possibly a carrier)? What about your personal liberty?
Side Note: Myocarditis: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/998012


To me, there are three main angles: Societal Policy, Individual Responsiblity, Individual Benevolence
This table shows a basic societal cost breakdown of COVID-19 compared to some other debated or regulated causes of death.


Societal policy is what we should enact in law and enforce under threat of imprisonment (or other coercive measure).
Annualized COVID-19 deaths are based on June 2021 numbers. This is the trough of flu season and before the Delta variant has taken hold. It probably will not get better than this for the next 8 months.


Individual responsibility is the bare minimum; what I should be able to expect of you as a rationally self-interested person, devoid of benevolence.
$10,000,000 is roughly the legal value of a wrongful death in the United States.


Individual benevolence is a higher bar than responsibility. It is the level at which I consider you to be "going the extra mile" for your fellow man. All people with whom I enjoy associating fall into this category. For a rough starting point, we tend to see things 30% in our own favor (citation needed, but it came from an MBA who is mad for data). Therefore, to try to be in the benevolent category, I think a good starting point is doing 130% of what you think is neutrally good.
QALY stands for Quality Adjusted Life Year - this is a measure of the number of quality years a person has left relative to a randomly selected person. The QALY adjuster for COVID-19 is low because it mostly kills old people. The QALY adjuster for Swimming Pools is high, because swimming pools mostly kill children. The adjusters are ballpark figures.


= Core Stats =
{| class="wikitable"
|+
!Name
!Region
!Region Population
!Annualized Deaths
!Life Value
!QALY Adjuster
!Annual Cost
!Annual Per Capita Cost
|-
|COVID-19
|Arizona
|7,520,000
|4,018
|$10,000,000
|0.33
|$13.26b
|$1,763
|-
|Suicide
|United States
|332,000,000
|48,334
|$10,000,000
|1.2
|$580.0b
|$1,746
|-
|COVID-19
|United States
|332,000,000
|127,838
|$10,000,000
|0.33
|$421.87b
|$1,271
|-
|Auto Accidents
|United States
|332,000,000
|37,000
|$10,000,000
|1.0
|$370.0b
|$1,114
|-
|Gun Non-Suicide
|United States
|332,000,000
|13,958
|$10,000,000
|1.2
|$167.50b
|$504
|-
|Swimming Pools
|United States
|332,000,000
|4,000
|$10,000,000
|1.5
|$60.0b
|$181
|}


Value of a US life: $10MM ([https://www.npr.org/2020/04/23/843310123/how-government-agencies-determine-the-dollar-value-of-human-life source])
To significantly reduce suicide, it would take some fundamental realignment of our societal approach to mental health.


US Population: 332MM
To significantly reduce auto accident deaths, it would take some significant limitations on people's freedom to drive.


= US Suicide =
To significantly reduce gun deaths, we would have to alter or at least dramatically reinterpret the Bill of Rights.


Annual US Suicides: 48,334 (2018)
To substantially reduce swimming pool deaths, we would have to do things like requiring fences around pools - which we do in most urban areas, even though it infringes on individual liberty.


Annual US Suicide Cost: $480b
To significantly reduce COVID deaths, you have to wear a mask when you are indoors with others.


Annual US Suicide Cost Per Capita: $1,446
In Arizona, the highest death cost per capita - even after QALYs are taken into account - also has the lowest personal cost to mitigate.


= US Cars =
When you're indoors with others, wear a mask.
 
Annual US Car Deaths: 37,000
 
Annual US Car Death Cost: $370b
 
Annual US Car Death Cost Per Capita: $1,114
 
= US Guns =
 
Annual US Gun Non-Suicides: 13,958 (homicide, accident, police, undetermined)
 
Annual US Gun Non-Suicide Cost: $140b
 
Annual US Gun Non-Suicide Cost Per Capita: $422
 
= US Swimming Pools =
 
Annual US Drownings: 4,000 (mostly swimming pools)
 
Annual US Swimming Pool Death Cost: $40b
 
Annual US Swimming Pool Death Cost Per Capita: $120
 
= US Masks =
 
Annualized US COVID Deaths: 127,838 (June 2021, trough of flu season, Delta variant not dominant yet)
 
Annualized US COVID Death Cost: $1,278b
 
Annual US COVID Death Cost Per Capita: $3,855
 
= AZ Masks =
 
AZ COVID Deaths Per Day: 11 (June 2021, trough of flu season, Delta variant not dominant yet)
 
Annualized AZ COVID Deaths: 4,018 (June 2021, trough of flu season, Delta variant not dominant yet)
 
Annualized AZ cost of COVID Deaths: $40b
 
AZ Population: 7,520,103
 
Annualized AZ COVID Death Cost Per Capita: $5,319
 
AZ Benevolent Individual Cost: $6,915
 
If you live in Arizona, and you are choosing not to wear a mask in the grocery store or inside the gas station, to fit in the "benevolent" category, you need to show that the burden of wearing a mask, to you, is greater than $6,915 per year.
 
And I don't give any special dispensation for being rich, so if you make a lot of money, you need to go find some average people and show that their burden is greater than $6,915 per year.

Latest revision as of 01:39, 14 August 2023


Side Note: Myocarditis: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/998012

This table shows a basic societal cost breakdown of COVID-19 compared to some other debated or regulated causes of death.

Annualized COVID-19 deaths are based on June 2021 numbers. This is the trough of flu season and before the Delta variant has taken hold. It probably will not get better than this for the next 8 months.

$10,000,000 is roughly the legal value of a wrongful death in the United States.

QALY stands for Quality Adjusted Life Year - this is a measure of the number of quality years a person has left relative to a randomly selected person. The QALY adjuster for COVID-19 is low because it mostly kills old people. The QALY adjuster for Swimming Pools is high, because swimming pools mostly kill children. The adjusters are ballpark figures.

Name Region Region Population Annualized Deaths Life Value QALY Adjuster Annual Cost Annual Per Capita Cost
COVID-19 Arizona 7,520,000 4,018 $10,000,000 0.33 $13.26b $1,763
Suicide United States 332,000,000 48,334 $10,000,000 1.2 $580.0b $1,746
COVID-19 United States 332,000,000 127,838 $10,000,000 0.33 $421.87b $1,271
Auto Accidents United States 332,000,000 37,000 $10,000,000 1.0 $370.0b $1,114
Gun Non-Suicide United States 332,000,000 13,958 $10,000,000 1.2 $167.50b $504
Swimming Pools United States 332,000,000 4,000 $10,000,000 1.5 $60.0b $181

To significantly reduce suicide, it would take some fundamental realignment of our societal approach to mental health.

To significantly reduce auto accident deaths, it would take some significant limitations on people's freedom to drive.

To significantly reduce gun deaths, we would have to alter or at least dramatically reinterpret the Bill of Rights.

To substantially reduce swimming pool deaths, we would have to do things like requiring fences around pools - which we do in most urban areas, even though it infringes on individual liberty.

To significantly reduce COVID deaths, you have to wear a mask when you are indoors with others.

In Arizona, the highest death cost per capita - even after QALYs are taken into account - also has the lowest personal cost to mitigate.

When you're indoors with others, wear a mask.

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