Senate Balance 2020: Difference between revisions

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Both sides have accused the other of fascism. Surely you have a view on which side is right.


We can all agree that this is the most important election of our lifetimes. I ''hate'' that advertising sways elections, but it does. If you want to see a future free from fascism, you have an obligation to tithe for freedom. Give 10% of your income, including realized and unrealized capital gains, pre-tax, max $2,800 per candidate, to Senate campaigns that will help ensure that fascism can take no root in the cradle of Liberty.
= Races That May Shift The Balance =
 
Both sides have also cast doubt on the results of the election. It is critical that you '''''VOTE''''' and get everyone you know to vote. Early and verified if possible. Early at a drop box if that is not possible. On election day if neither is possible. Or, if none of those is possible, by mail as early as possible.
 
= Vulnerable To Flip =


{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
|+
|+
Very Close Races (+2D?)
!State
!State
!Incumbent Party
!Incumbent Party
!Polls
!Polls
!Poll Margin
!Poll Margin
!Campaign Sites
!Links
!Links
!Money
!Notes
!Notes
|-
|-
|Alaska
|Alaska
|Republican
|Republican
|tied, limited data
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/alaska/ 37D, 45R]
|?
|8R
|[https://dralgrossak.com/ I], [https://dansullivanforalaska.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska|Wikipedia]]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska|Wikipedia]]
|Evolving Rapidly
|Limited polling data. Competitor is independent.
|Generally Alaska is safe for Republicans. It has become heated, though, with millions of dollars in campaign cash rolling in on both sides since RBG's death. Lisa Murkowski, the incumbent Republican, has declared that she will oppose a SCOTUS appointment.
|-
|Georgia
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/georgia/ 44.5D, 46.0R]
|1.5R
|[https://electjon.com/ D], [https://perduesenate.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia|Wikipedia]]
|Georgia is generally safe for Republicans.
|-
|-
|Colorado
|Iowa
|Republican
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/colorado/ 50.7D, 43.3R]
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/iowa/ 47.0D, 44.2R]
|7.4D
|2.8D
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Colorado|Wikipedia]]
|[https://greenfieldforiowa.com/ D], [https://joniernst.com/ R]
|
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa|Wikipedia]]
|
|
|-
|-
|Georgia
|Montana
|Republican
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/georgia/ 42.4D, 44.4R]
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/montana/ 46.0D, 48.0R]
|2.0R
|2.0R
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia|Wikipedia]]
|[https://stevebullock.com/ D], [https://www.stevedaines.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Montana|Wikipedia]]
|
|
|The closeness of the polls may not reflect realistic likelihood of winning. Georgia is generally safe for Republicans, and may be particularly so this year.
|-
|-
|Iowa
|North Carolina
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/north-carolina/ 46.3D, 42.5R]
|3.8D
|[https://www.calfornc.com/ D], [https://www.thomtillis.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina|Wikipedia]]
|Tillis (R) has COVID-19, Cunningham (D) caught cheating.
|-
|South Carolina
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/south-carolina/ 43.5D, 46.8R]
|3.3R
|[https://jaimeharrison.com/ D], [https://www.lindseygraham.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina|Wikipedia]]
|Lindsey Graham (R) is the well-known incumbent.
|}
 
{| class="wikitable"
|+
Close Races (+2D)
!State
!Incumbent Party
!Polls
!Poll Margin
!Campaign Sites
!Links
!Notes
|-
|Colorado
|Republican
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/iowa/ 44.8D, 44.8R]
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/colorado/ 50.5D, 40.5R]
|0
|10.0D
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa|Wikipedia]]
|[https://hickenlooper.com/ D], [https://www.corygardnerforsenate.com/ R]
|
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Colorado|Wikipedia]]
|
|
|-
|-
|Kansas
|Kansas
|Republican
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/kansas/ 44D, 46R (limited polling)]
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/kansas/ 43D, 50R]
|2.0R
|7R
|[https://bollierforkansas.com/ D], [https://kansansformarshall.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Kansas|Wikipedia]]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Kansas|Wikipedia]]
|
|One recent poll.
|
|-
|-
|Maine
|Maine
|Republican
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/maine/ 48.4D, 43.0R]
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/maine/ 46.2D, 41.8R]
|5.4D
|4.4D
|[https://saragideon.com/ D], [https://www.susancollins.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Maine|Wikipedia]]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Maine|Wikipedia]]
|
|Susan Collins (R) is the well-known incumbent.
|Susan Collins (R) is the well-known incumbent.
|-
|-
|Michigan
|Michigan
|Democrat
|Democrat
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/michigan/ 46.8D, 41.6R]
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/michigan/ 47.0D, 41.7R]
|5.2D
|5.3D
|[https://petersformichigan.com/ D], [https://johnjamesforsenate.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Michigan|Wikipedia]]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Michigan|Wikipedia]]
|John James (R) has the money advantage by about 10% ($500k).
|
|-
|Montana
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/montana/ 45.5D, 47.5R]
|2.0R
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Montana|Wikipedia]]
|
|
|
|-
|-
|New Mexico
|New Mexico
|Democrat
|Democrat
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/new-mexico/ 49D, 40R (limited polling)]
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/new-mexico/ 49D, 40R]
|9.0D
|9.0D
|[https://benraylujan.com/ D], [https://www.markronchetti.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Mexico|Wikipedia]]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Mexico|Wikipedia]]
|
|limited polling data
|
|-
|North Carolina
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/north-carolina/ 47.2D, 41.2R]
|6.0D
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina|Wikipedia]]
|
|
|-
|South Carolina
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/south-carolina/ 46.5D, 47.0R]
|0.5R
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina|Wikipedia]]
|
|Lindsey Graham (R) is the well-known incumbent.
|-
|-
|Texas
|Texas
|Republican
|Republican
|
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/texas/ 42.2D, 48.2R]
|
|6.0R
|
|[https://mjfortexas.com/ D], [https://www.johncornyn.com/ R]
|
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas|Wikipedia]]
|
|Early voter suppression in high population areas improving Republican chances.
|}
|}
= Contribution Limits =
Each individual can give a maximum of $2,800 per candidate. See the "Campaign Sites" column in the table above for a path to contributing.
= Voting =
Given the pandemic and the reduced number of polling places, you should vote early if you can to leave room for those who cannot vote early. With the questionable state of postal service and mail-in ballot counting, it is best to vote via early polling or drop-box.
# Vote early at an ID-checking early polling place if possible.
# Vote early at a drop box if that is not possible.
# Vote on election day if neither is possible.
# If none of those is possible, vote by mail as early as possible.


= Possibility to Flip =
= Possibility to Flip =


Current balance is 53:47
== Current Balance ==
 
Current balance is 53:47, meaning 3 net D-flips are needed for an even balance. The VP casts the tie-breaking vote, so either 4 or 2 net D-flips would result in a VP-proof majority, depending on your preferred side.


== Probable to Flip ==
== Probable to Flip ==


Using my boundary for choosing states with uncertain outcomes (leader has less than a 10 point lead), the following states can be counted. That does not mean that it is OK to give up. Your side should stay in fight until the end, and especially at the polls.
These states appear likely to flip with more than a 10 point margin for the competitor to the incumbent.
 
# Alabama will flip from Democrat to Republican.
# Arizona will flip from Republican to Democrat.
 
== Close Races ==


# Alabama will flip from Democrat to Republican: R+1
See the "Close Races" tables, above.
# Arizona will flip from Republican to Democrat: D+1


== Unlikely to Flip ==
== Unlikely to Flip ==
# New Hampshire is secure for the incumbent (D): +0
# Idaho is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
# Kentucky is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
# Minnesota is secure for the incumbent (D): +0
# Mississippi is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
# New Jersey is secure for the incumbent (D): +0
# Oklahoma is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
# Virginia is safe for the incumbent (D): +0


== Possible to Flip ==
These states are unlikely to flip, with the incumbent having a lead of greater than 10%.


These are the states that appear in the "Vulnerable to Flip" table, above.
# New Hampshire (D)
# Idaho (R)
# Kentucky (R)
# Minnesota (D)
# Mississippi (R)
# New Jersey (D)
# Oklahoma (R)
# Virginia (D)


== Insufficient Data ==
== Insufficient Data ==
Additionally, the following states are having a Sente vote this year but did not have polling data readily available and will require more research: Oregon, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Illinois, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, West Virginia, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Delaware
The following states are having a Senate vote this year but did not have polling data readily available and will require more research:
 
# Arkansas
# Delaware
# Illinois
# Louisiana
# Massachusetts
# Nebraska
# Oregon
# Rhode Island
# South Dakota
# Tennessee
# West Virginia
# Wyoming


FWIW, I think these are not heavily polled because they are secure with the incumbent party.
A brief look suggests these are not heavily polled because they are secure with the incumbent party.

Latest revision as of 02:17, 18 October 2020

Races That May Shift The Balance

Very Close Races (+2D?)
State Incumbent Party Polls Poll Margin Campaign Sites Links Notes
Alaska Republican 37D, 45R 8R I, R Wikipedia Limited polling data. Competitor is independent.
Georgia Republican 44.5D, 46.0R 1.5R D, R Wikipedia Georgia is generally safe for Republicans.
Iowa Republican 47.0D, 44.2R 2.8D D, R Wikipedia
Montana Republican 46.0D, 48.0R 2.0R D, R Wikipedia
North Carolina Republican 46.3D, 42.5R 3.8D D, R Wikipedia Tillis (R) has COVID-19, Cunningham (D) caught cheating.
South Carolina Republican 43.5D, 46.8R 3.3R D, R Wikipedia Lindsey Graham (R) is the well-known incumbent.
Close Races (+2D)
State Incumbent Party Polls Poll Margin Campaign Sites Links Notes
Colorado Republican 50.5D, 40.5R 10.0D D, R Wikipedia
Kansas Republican 43D, 50R 7R D, R Wikipedia One recent poll.
Maine Republican 46.2D, 41.8R 4.4D D, R Wikipedia Susan Collins (R) is the well-known incumbent.
Michigan Democrat 47.0D, 41.7R 5.3D D, R Wikipedia
New Mexico Democrat 49D, 40R 9.0D D, R Wikipedia limited polling data
Texas Republican 42.2D, 48.2R 6.0R D, R Wikipedia Early voter suppression in high population areas improving Republican chances.

Contribution Limits

Each individual can give a maximum of $2,800 per candidate. See the "Campaign Sites" column in the table above for a path to contributing.

Voting

Given the pandemic and the reduced number of polling places, you should vote early if you can to leave room for those who cannot vote early. With the questionable state of postal service and mail-in ballot counting, it is best to vote via early polling or drop-box.

  1. Vote early at an ID-checking early polling place if possible.
  2. Vote early at a drop box if that is not possible.
  3. Vote on election day if neither is possible.
  4. If none of those is possible, vote by mail as early as possible.

Possibility to Flip

Current Balance

Current balance is 53:47, meaning 3 net D-flips are needed for an even balance. The VP casts the tie-breaking vote, so either 4 or 2 net D-flips would result in a VP-proof majority, depending on your preferred side.

Probable to Flip

These states appear likely to flip with more than a 10 point margin for the competitor to the incumbent.

  1. Alabama will flip from Democrat to Republican.
  2. Arizona will flip from Republican to Democrat.

Close Races

See the "Close Races" tables, above.

Unlikely to Flip

These states are unlikely to flip, with the incumbent having a lead of greater than 10%.

  1. New Hampshire (D)
  2. Idaho (R)
  3. Kentucky (R)
  4. Minnesota (D)
  5. Mississippi (R)
  6. New Jersey (D)
  7. Oklahoma (R)
  8. Virginia (D)

Insufficient Data

The following states are having a Senate vote this year but did not have polling data readily available and will require more research:

  1. Arkansas
  2. Delaware
  3. Illinois
  4. Louisiana
  5. Massachusetts
  6. Nebraska
  7. Oregon
  8. Rhode Island
  9. South Dakota
  10. Tennessee
  11. West Virginia
  12. Wyoming

A brief look suggests these are not heavily polled because they are secure with the incumbent party.

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