Senate Balance 2020: Difference between revisions

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= Likelihood to Flip =


Current balance is 53:47
= Races That May Shift The Balance =


# Alabama will flip from Democrat to Republican: R+1
{| class="wikitable"
# Alaska has minimal poll data, the most recent poll showed a tie between the incumbent (R) and the challenger (D), but it's not very credible. Generally Alaska is safe for Republicans. It has become heated, though, so I'm deferring it to the list below.
|+
# Arizona will flip from Republican to Democrat: D+1
Very Close Races (+2D?)
# Colorado may flip from R to D - deferred to the list below.
!State
# Georgia may flip from R to D - deferred to the list below.
!Incumbent Party
# Idaho is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
!Polls
# Iowa may flip from R to D - deferred to the list below.
!Poll Margin
# Kansas may flip from R (retired) to D - deferred to the list below.
!Campaign Sites
# Kentucky is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
!Links
# Maine may flip from R to D - deferred to the list below.
!Notes
# Michigan may flip from D to R - deferred to the list below.
|-
# Minnesota is secure for the incumbent (D): +0
|Alaska
# Mississippi is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
|Republican
# Montana may flip from R to D - deferred to the list below.
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/alaska/ 37D, 45R]
# New Hampshire is secure for the incumbent (D): +0
|8R
# New Jersey is secure for the incumbent (D): +0
|[https://dralgrossak.com/ I], [https://dansullivanforalaska.com/ R]
# New Mexico may flip from D to R - deferred to the list below.
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska|Wikipedia]]
# North Carolina may flip from R to D - deferred to the list below.
|Limited polling data. Competitor is independent.
# Oklahoma is secure for the incumbent (R): +0
|-
# South Carolina may flip from R to D - deferred to the list below.
|Georgia
# Texas may flip from R to D - deferred to the list below.
|Republican
# Virginia is safe for the incumbent (D): +0
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/georgia/ 44.5D, 46.0R]
|1.5R
|[https://electjon.com/ D], [https://perduesenate.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia|Wikipedia]]
|Georgia is generally safe for Republicans.
|-
|Iowa
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/iowa/ 47.0D, 44.2R]
|2.8D
|[https://greenfieldforiowa.com/ D], [https://joniernst.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa|Wikipedia]]
|
|-
|Montana
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/montana/ 46.0D, 48.0R]
|2.0R
|[https://stevebullock.com/ D], [https://www.stevedaines.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Montana|Wikipedia]]
|
|-
|North Carolina
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/north-carolina/ 46.3D, 42.5R]
|3.8D
|[https://www.calfornc.com/ D], [https://www.thomtillis.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina|Wikipedia]]
|Tillis (R) has COVID-19, Cunningham (D) caught cheating.
|-
|South Carolina
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/south-carolina/ 43.5D, 46.8R]
|3.3R
|[https://jaimeharrison.com/ D], [https://www.lindseygraham.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina|Wikipedia]]
|Lindsey Graham (R) is the well-known incumbent.
|}


Additionally, the following states are having a Sente vote this year but did not have polling data readily available and will require more research: Oregon, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Illinois, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, West Virginia, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Delaware
{| class="wikitable"
|+
Close Races (+2D)
!State
!Incumbent Party
!Polls
!Poll Margin
!Campaign Sites
!Links
!Notes
|-
|Colorado
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/colorado/ 50.5D, 40.5R]
|10.0D
|[https://hickenlooper.com/ D], [https://www.corygardnerforsenate.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Colorado|Wikipedia]]
|
|-
|Kansas
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/kansas/ 43D, 50R]
|7R
|[https://bollierforkansas.com/ D], [https://kansansformarshall.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Kansas|Wikipedia]]
|One recent poll.
|-
|Maine
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/maine/ 46.2D, 41.8R]
|4.4D
|[https://saragideon.com/ D], [https://www.susancollins.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Maine|Wikipedia]]
|Susan Collins (R) is the well-known incumbent.
|-
|Michigan
|Democrat
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/michigan/ 47.0D, 41.7R]
|5.3D
|[https://petersformichigan.com/ D], [https://johnjamesforsenate.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Michigan|Wikipedia]]
|
|-
|New Mexico
|Democrat
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/new-mexico/ 49D, 40R]
|9.0D
|[https://benraylujan.com/ D], [https://www.markronchetti.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Mexico|Wikipedia]]
|limited polling data
|-
|Texas
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/texas/ 42.2D, 48.2R]
|6.0R
|[https://mjfortexas.com/ D], [https://www.johncornyn.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas|Wikipedia]]
|Early voter suppression in high population areas improving Republican chances.
|}


= Vulnerable To Flip =
= Contribution Limits =


== Democrat Incumbent (or retiring) ==
Each individual can give a maximum of $2,800 per candidate. See the "Campaign Sites" column in the table above for a path to contributing.


# Michigan [https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/michigan/ 46.8 D, 41.6 R] [[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Michigan|Wikipedia]] John James (R) has the money advantage by about 10% ($500k).
= Voting =
# New Mexico [https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/new-mexico/ 49 D, 40 R (limited polling)] [[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Mexico|Wikipedia]]


== Republican Incumbent (or retiring) ==
Given the pandemic and the reduced number of polling places, you should vote early if you can to leave room for those who cannot vote early. With the questionable state of postal service and mail-in ballot counting, it is best to vote via early polling or drop-box.


# Alaska has minimal poll data, the most recent poll showed a tie between the incumbent (R) and the challenger (D), but it's not particularly credible. Generally Alaska is safe for Republicans. It has become heated, though, with millions rolling in on both sides since RBG's death. Lisa Murkowski, the incumbent Republican, has declared that she will oppose a SCOTUS appointment.
# Vote early at an ID-checking early polling place if possible.
# Colorado [https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/colorado/ 50.7 D, 43.3 R] [[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Colorado|Wikipedia]]
# Vote early at a drop box if that is not possible.
# Georgia
# Vote on election day if neither is possible.
# Iowa
# If none of those is possible, vote by mail as early as possible.
# Kansas
 
# Maine
= Possibility to Flip =
# Montana 45.5 D, 47.5 R
 
# North Carolina
== Current Balance ==
# South Carolina
 
# Texas
Current balance is 53:47, meaning 3 net D-flips are needed for an even balance. The VP casts the tie-breaking vote, so either 4 or 2 net D-flips would result in a VP-proof majority, depending on your preferred side.
 
== Probable to Flip ==
 
These states appear likely to flip with more than a 10 point margin for the competitor to the incumbent.
 
# Alabama will flip from Democrat to Republican.
# Arizona will flip from Republican to Democrat.
 
== Close Races ==
 
See the "Close Races" tables, above.
 
== Unlikely to Flip ==
 
These states are unlikely to flip, with the incumbent having a lead of greater than 10%.
 
# New Hampshire (D)
# Idaho (R)
# Kentucky (R)
# Minnesota (D)
# Mississippi (R)
# New Jersey (D)
# Oklahoma (R)
# Virginia (D)
 
== Insufficient Data ==
The following states are having a Senate vote this year but did not have polling data readily available and will require more research:
 
# Arkansas
# Delaware
# Illinois
# Louisiana
# Massachusetts
# Nebraska
# Oregon
# Rhode Island
# South Dakota
# Tennessee
# West Virginia
# Wyoming
 
A brief look suggests these are not heavily polled because they are secure with the incumbent party.

Latest revision as of 02:17, 18 October 2020

Races That May Shift The Balance

Very Close Races (+2D?)
State Incumbent Party Polls Poll Margin Campaign Sites Links Notes
Alaska Republican 37D, 45R 8R I, R Wikipedia Limited polling data. Competitor is independent.
Georgia Republican 44.5D, 46.0R 1.5R D, R Wikipedia Georgia is generally safe for Republicans.
Iowa Republican 47.0D, 44.2R 2.8D D, R Wikipedia
Montana Republican 46.0D, 48.0R 2.0R D, R Wikipedia
North Carolina Republican 46.3D, 42.5R 3.8D D, R Wikipedia Tillis (R) has COVID-19, Cunningham (D) caught cheating.
South Carolina Republican 43.5D, 46.8R 3.3R D, R Wikipedia Lindsey Graham (R) is the well-known incumbent.
Close Races (+2D)
State Incumbent Party Polls Poll Margin Campaign Sites Links Notes
Colorado Republican 50.5D, 40.5R 10.0D D, R Wikipedia
Kansas Republican 43D, 50R 7R D, R Wikipedia One recent poll.
Maine Republican 46.2D, 41.8R 4.4D D, R Wikipedia Susan Collins (R) is the well-known incumbent.
Michigan Democrat 47.0D, 41.7R 5.3D D, R Wikipedia
New Mexico Democrat 49D, 40R 9.0D D, R Wikipedia limited polling data
Texas Republican 42.2D, 48.2R 6.0R D, R Wikipedia Early voter suppression in high population areas improving Republican chances.

Contribution Limits

Each individual can give a maximum of $2,800 per candidate. See the "Campaign Sites" column in the table above for a path to contributing.

Voting

Given the pandemic and the reduced number of polling places, you should vote early if you can to leave room for those who cannot vote early. With the questionable state of postal service and mail-in ballot counting, it is best to vote via early polling or drop-box.

  1. Vote early at an ID-checking early polling place if possible.
  2. Vote early at a drop box if that is not possible.
  3. Vote on election day if neither is possible.
  4. If none of those is possible, vote by mail as early as possible.

Possibility to Flip

Current Balance

Current balance is 53:47, meaning 3 net D-flips are needed for an even balance. The VP casts the tie-breaking vote, so either 4 or 2 net D-flips would result in a VP-proof majority, depending on your preferred side.

Probable to Flip

These states appear likely to flip with more than a 10 point margin for the competitor to the incumbent.

  1. Alabama will flip from Democrat to Republican.
  2. Arizona will flip from Republican to Democrat.

Close Races

See the "Close Races" tables, above.

Unlikely to Flip

These states are unlikely to flip, with the incumbent having a lead of greater than 10%.

  1. New Hampshire (D)
  2. Idaho (R)
  3. Kentucky (R)
  4. Minnesota (D)
  5. Mississippi (R)
  6. New Jersey (D)
  7. Oklahoma (R)
  8. Virginia (D)

Insufficient Data

The following states are having a Senate vote this year but did not have polling data readily available and will require more research:

  1. Arkansas
  2. Delaware
  3. Illinois
  4. Louisiana
  5. Massachusetts
  6. Nebraska
  7. Oregon
  8. Rhode Island
  9. South Dakota
  10. Tennessee
  11. West Virginia
  12. Wyoming

A brief look suggests these are not heavily polled because they are secure with the incumbent party.

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