Senate Balance 2020: Difference between revisions

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{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
|+
|+
Very Close Races
Very Close Races (+2D?)
!State
!State
!Incumbent Party
!Incumbent Party
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|Alaska
|Alaska
|Republican
|Republican
|tied
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/alaska/ 37D, 45R]
|?
|8R
|[https://dralgrossak.com/ I], [https://dansullivanforalaska.com/ R]
|[https://dralgrossak.com/ I], [https://dansullivanforalaska.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska|Wikipedia]]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska|Wikipedia]]
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|Georgia
|Georgia
|Republican
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/georgia/ 42.4D, 44.4R]
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/georgia/ 44.5D, 46.0R]
|2.0R
|1.5R
|[https://electjon.com/ D], [https://perduesenate.com/ R]
|[https://electjon.com/ D], [https://perduesenate.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia|Wikipedia]]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia|Wikipedia]]
Line 31: Line 31:
|Iowa
|Iowa
|Republican
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/iowa/ 44.8D, 44.8R]
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/iowa/ 47.0D, 44.2R]
|0
|2.8D
|[https://greenfieldforiowa.com/ D], [https://joniernst.com/ R]
|[https://greenfieldforiowa.com/ D], [https://joniernst.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa|Wikipedia]]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa|Wikipedia]]
|
|
|-
|Kansas
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/kansas/ 44D, 46R]
|2.0R
|[https://bollierforkansas.com/ D], [https://kansansformarshall.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Kansas|Wikipedia]]
|limited polling data
|-
|-
|Montana
|Montana
|Republican
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/montana/ 45.5D, 47.5R]
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/montana/ 46.0D, 48.0R]
|2.0R
|2.0R
|[https://stevebullock.com/ D], [https://www.stevedaines.com/ R]
|[https://stevebullock.com/ D], [https://www.stevedaines.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Montana|Wikipedia]]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Montana|Wikipedia]]
|
|
|-
|North Carolina
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/north-carolina/ 46.3D, 42.5R]
|3.8D
|[https://www.calfornc.com/ D], [https://www.thomtillis.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina|Wikipedia]]
|Tillis (R) has COVID-19, Cunningham (D) caught cheating.
|-
|-
|South Carolina
|South Carolina
|Republican
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/south-carolina/ 46.5D, 47.0R]
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/south-carolina/ 43.5D, 46.8R]
|0.5R
|3.3R
|[https://jaimeharrison.com/ D], [https://www.lindseygraham.com/ R]
|[https://jaimeharrison.com/ D], [https://www.lindseygraham.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina|Wikipedia]]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina|Wikipedia]]
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{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
|+
|+
Close Races
Close Races (+2D)
!State
!State
!Incumbent Party
!Incumbent Party
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|Colorado
|Colorado
|Republican
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/colorado/ 50.7D, 43.3R]
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/colorado/ 50.5D, 40.5R]
|7.4D
|10.0D
|[https://hickenlooper.com/ D], [https://www.corygardnerforsenate.com/ R]
|[https://hickenlooper.com/ D], [https://www.corygardnerforsenate.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Colorado|Wikipedia]]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Colorado|Wikipedia]]
|
|
|-
|Kansas
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/kansas/ 43D, 50R]
|7R
|[https://bollierforkansas.com/ D], [https://kansansformarshall.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Kansas|Wikipedia]]
|One recent poll.
|-
|-
|Maine
|Maine
|Republican
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/maine/ 48.4D, 43.0R]
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/maine/ 46.2D, 41.8R]
|5.4D
|4.4D
|[https://saragideon.com/ D], [https://www.susancollins.com/ R]
|[https://saragideon.com/ D], [https://www.susancollins.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Maine|Wikipedia]]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Maine|Wikipedia]]
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|Michigan
|Michigan
|Democrat
|Democrat
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/michigan/ 46.8D, 41.6R]
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/michigan/ 47.0D, 41.7R]
|5.2D
|5.3D
|[https://petersformichigan.com/ D], [https://johnjamesforsenate.com/ R]
|[https://petersformichigan.com/ D], [https://johnjamesforsenate.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Michigan|Wikipedia]]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Michigan|Wikipedia]]
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|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Mexico|Wikipedia]]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Mexico|Wikipedia]]
|limited polling data
|limited polling data
|-
|North Carolina
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/north-carolina/ 47.2D, 41.2R]
|6.0D
|[https://www.calfornc.com/ D], [https://www.thomtillis.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina|Wikipedia]]
|
|-
|-
|Texas
|Texas
|Republican
|Republican
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/texas/ 39.8D, 45.6R]
|[https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-polls/texas/ 42.2D, 48.2R]
|5.8R
|6.0R
|[https://mjfortexas.com/ D], [https://www.johncornyn.com/ R]
|[https://mjfortexas.com/ D], [https://www.johncornyn.com/ R]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas|Wikipedia]]
|[[wikipedia:2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas|Wikipedia]]
|John Cornyn (R) is the well-known incumbent.
|Early voter suppression in high population areas improving Republican chances.
|}
|}


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== Current Balance ==
== Current Balance ==


Current balance is 53:47, meaning 3 are needed for an even balance. The VP casts the tie-breaking vote, so one more is needed on the appropriate side for a VP-proof majority.
Current balance is 53:47, meaning 3 net D-flips are needed for an even balance. The VP casts the tie-breaking vote, so either 4 or 2 net D-flips would result in a VP-proof majority, depending on your preferred side.


== Probable to Flip ==
== Probable to Flip ==
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== Close Races ==
== Close Races ==


These are the states that appear in the "Close Races" tables, above.
See the "Close Races" tables, above.


== Unlikely to Flip ==
== Unlikely to Flip ==
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== Insufficient Data ==
== Insufficient Data ==
Additionally, the following states are having a Senate vote this year but did not have polling data readily available and will require more research:
The following states are having a Senate vote this year but did not have polling data readily available and will require more research:


# Arkansas
# Arkansas
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# Wyoming
# Wyoming


FWIW, I think these are not heavily polled because they are secure with the incumbent party.
A brief look suggests these are not heavily polled because they are secure with the incumbent party.

Latest revision as of 02:17, 18 October 2020

Races That May Shift The Balance

Very Close Races (+2D?)
State Incumbent Party Polls Poll Margin Campaign Sites Links Notes
Alaska Republican 37D, 45R 8R I, R Wikipedia Limited polling data. Competitor is independent.
Georgia Republican 44.5D, 46.0R 1.5R D, R Wikipedia Georgia is generally safe for Republicans.
Iowa Republican 47.0D, 44.2R 2.8D D, R Wikipedia
Montana Republican 46.0D, 48.0R 2.0R D, R Wikipedia
North Carolina Republican 46.3D, 42.5R 3.8D D, R Wikipedia Tillis (R) has COVID-19, Cunningham (D) caught cheating.
South Carolina Republican 43.5D, 46.8R 3.3R D, R Wikipedia Lindsey Graham (R) is the well-known incumbent.
Close Races (+2D)
State Incumbent Party Polls Poll Margin Campaign Sites Links Notes
Colorado Republican 50.5D, 40.5R 10.0D D, R Wikipedia
Kansas Republican 43D, 50R 7R D, R Wikipedia One recent poll.
Maine Republican 46.2D, 41.8R 4.4D D, R Wikipedia Susan Collins (R) is the well-known incumbent.
Michigan Democrat 47.0D, 41.7R 5.3D D, R Wikipedia
New Mexico Democrat 49D, 40R 9.0D D, R Wikipedia limited polling data
Texas Republican 42.2D, 48.2R 6.0R D, R Wikipedia Early voter suppression in high population areas improving Republican chances.

Contribution Limits

Each individual can give a maximum of $2,800 per candidate. See the "Campaign Sites" column in the table above for a path to contributing.

Voting

Given the pandemic and the reduced number of polling places, you should vote early if you can to leave room for those who cannot vote early. With the questionable state of postal service and mail-in ballot counting, it is best to vote via early polling or drop-box.

  1. Vote early at an ID-checking early polling place if possible.
  2. Vote early at a drop box if that is not possible.
  3. Vote on election day if neither is possible.
  4. If none of those is possible, vote by mail as early as possible.

Possibility to Flip

Current Balance

Current balance is 53:47, meaning 3 net D-flips are needed for an even balance. The VP casts the tie-breaking vote, so either 4 or 2 net D-flips would result in a VP-proof majority, depending on your preferred side.

Probable to Flip

These states appear likely to flip with more than a 10 point margin for the competitor to the incumbent.

  1. Alabama will flip from Democrat to Republican.
  2. Arizona will flip from Republican to Democrat.

Close Races

See the "Close Races" tables, above.

Unlikely to Flip

These states are unlikely to flip, with the incumbent having a lead of greater than 10%.

  1. New Hampshire (D)
  2. Idaho (R)
  3. Kentucky (R)
  4. Minnesota (D)
  5. Mississippi (R)
  6. New Jersey (D)
  7. Oklahoma (R)
  8. Virginia (D)

Insufficient Data

The following states are having a Senate vote this year but did not have polling data readily available and will require more research:

  1. Arkansas
  2. Delaware
  3. Illinois
  4. Louisiana
  5. Massachusetts
  6. Nebraska
  7. Oregon
  8. Rhode Island
  9. South Dakota
  10. Tennessee
  11. West Virginia
  12. Wyoming

A brief look suggests these are not heavily polled because they are secure with the incumbent party.

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