MaskMath: Difference between revisions
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To significantly reduce COVID deaths, you have to wear a mask when you are indoors with others. | To significantly reduce COVID deaths, you have to wear a mask when you are indoors with others. | ||
In Arizona, the highest death toll - even after QALYs are taken into account - also has the lowest cost to mitigate. | In Arizona, the highest death toll - even after QALYs are taken into account - also has the lowest personal cost to mitigate. | ||
When you're indoors with others, wear a mask. | When you're indoors with others, wear a mask. | ||
Revision as of 03:36, 21 June 2021
This table shows a basic societal cost breakdown of COVID-19 compared to some other debated or regulated causes of death.
Annualized deaths are based on June 2021 numbers. This is the trough of flu season and before the Delta variant has taken hold. It probably will not get better than this for the next 8 months.
$10,000,000 is roughly the legal value of a wrongful death in the United States.
QALY stands for Quality Adjusted Life Year - this is a measure of the number of quality years a person has left relative to a randomly selected person. The QALY adjuster for COVID-19 is low because it mostly kills old people. The QALY adjuster for Swimming Pools is high, because swimming pools mostly kill children. The adjusters are ballpark figures.
| Name | Region | Region Population | Annualized Deaths | Life Value | QALY Adjuster | Annual Cost | Annual Per Capita Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COVID-19 | Arizona | 7,520,000 | 4,018 | $10,000,000 | 0.33 | $13.26b | $1,763 |
| Suicide | United States | 332,000,000 | 48,334 | $10,000,000 | 1.2 | $580.0b | $1,746 |
| COVID-19 | United States | 332,000,000 | 127,838 | $10,000,000 | 0.33 | $421.87b | $1,271 |
| Auto Accidents | United States | 332,000,000 | 37,000 | $10,000,000 | 1.0 | $370.0b | $1,114 |
| Gun Non-Suicide | United States | 332,000,000 | 13,958 | $10,000,000 | 1.2 | $167.50b | $504 |
| Swimming Pools | United States | 332,000,000 | 4,000 | $10,000,000 | 1.5 | $60.0b | $181 |
To significantly reduce suicide, it would take some fundamental realignment of our societal approach to mental health.
To significantly reduce auto accident deaths, it would take some significant limitations on people's freedom to drive.
To significantly reduce gun deaths, we would have to alter or at least dramatically reinterpret the Bill of Rights.
To substantially reduce swimming pool deaths, we would have to do things like requiring fences around pools - which we do in most urban areas, even though it infringes on individual liberty.
To significantly reduce COVID deaths, you have to wear a mask when you are indoors with others.
In Arizona, the highest death toll - even after QALYs are taken into account - also has the lowest personal cost to mitigate.
When you're indoors with others, wear a mask.