MaskMath: Difference between revisions

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QALY stands for Quality Adjusted Life Year - this is a measure of the number of quality years a person has left relative to a randomly selected person. The QALY adjuster for COVID-19 is low because it mostly kills old people. The QALY adjuster for Swimming Pools is high, because swimming pools mostly kill children.
QALY stands for Quality Adjusted Life Year - this is a measure of the number of quality years a person has left relative to a randomly selected person. The QALY adjuster for COVID-19 is low because it mostly kills old people. The QALY adjuster for Swimming Pools is high, because swimming pools mostly kill children. The adjusters are ballpark figures.
 
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= Core Stats =
Value of a US life: $10MM ([https://www.npr.org/2020/04/23/843310123/how-government-agencies-determine-the-dollar-value-of-human-life source])
US Population: 332MM
= US Suicide =
Annual US Suicides: 48,334 (2018)
Annual US Suicide Cost: $480b
Annual US Suicide Cost Per Capita: $1,446
= US Cars =
Annual US Car Deaths: 37,000
Annual US Car Death Cost: $370b
Annual US Car Death Cost Per Capita: $1,114
= US Guns =
Annual US Gun Non-Suicides: 13,958 (homicide, accident, police, undetermined)
Annual US Gun Non-Suicide Cost: $140b
Annual US Gun Non-Suicide Cost Per Capita: $422
= US Swimming Pools =
Annual US Drownings: 4,000 (mostly swimming pools)
Annual US Swimming Pool Death Cost: $40b
Annual US Swimming Pool Death Cost Per Capita: $120
= US Masks =
Annualized US COVID Deaths: 127,838 (June 2021, trough of flu season, Delta variant not dominant yet)
Annualized US COVID Death Cost: $1,278b
Annual US COVID Death Cost Per Capita: $3,855
= AZ Masks =
AZ COVID Deaths Per Day: 11 (June 2021, trough of flu season, Delta variant not dominant yet)
Annualized AZ COVID Deaths: 4,018 (June 2021, trough of flu season, Delta variant not dominant yet)
Annualized AZ cost of COVID Deaths: $40b
AZ Population: 7,520,103
Annualized AZ COVID Death Cost Per Capita: $5,319
AZ Benevolent Individual Cost: $6,915
If you live in Arizona, and you are choosing not to wear a mask in the grocery store or inside the gas station, to fit in the "benevolent" category, you need to show that the burden of wearing a mask, to you, is greater than $6,915 per year.
And I don't give any special dispensation for being rich, so if you make a lot of money, you need to go find some average people and show that their burden is greater than $6,915 per year.

Revision as of 03:27, 21 June 2021


This table shows a basic cost breakdown of COVID-19 compared to some other debated or regulated causes of death.


Annualized deaths are based on June 2021 numbers. This is the trough of flu season and before the Delta variant has taken hold. It probably will not get better than this for the next 8 months.


$10,000,000 is roughly the legal value of a wrongful death in the United States.


QALY stands for Quality Adjusted Life Year - this is a measure of the number of quality years a person has left relative to a randomly selected person. The QALY adjuster for COVID-19 is low because it mostly kills old people. The QALY adjuster for Swimming Pools is high, because swimming pools mostly kill children. The adjusters are ballpark figures.

Name Region Region Population Annualized Deaths Life Value QALY Adjuster Annual Cost Annual Per Capita Cost
COVID-19 Arizona 7,520,000 4,018 $10,000,000 0.33 $13.26b $1,763
Suicide United States 332,000,000 48,334 $10,000,000 1.2 $580.0b $1,746
COVID-19 United States 332,000,000 127,838 $10,000,000 0.33 $421.87b $1,271
Auto Accidents United States 332,000,000 37,000 $10,000,000 1.0 $370.0b $1,114
Gun Non-Suicide United States 332,000,000 13,958 $10,000,000 1.2 $167.50b $504
Swimming Pools United States 332,000,000 4,000 $10,000,000 1.5 $60.0b $181
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