MaskMath: Difference between revisions

From Traxel Wiki
Jump to navigation Jump to search
No edit summary
No edit summary
Line 1: Line 1:
[[Category:Socioeconomics]]
[[Category:Socioeconomics]]


Should you wear a mask? What if you're vaccinated (but still possibly a carrier)? What about your personal liberty?
This table shows a basic cost breakdown of COVID-19 compared to some other debated or regulated causes of death.


To me, there are three main angles: Societal Policy, Individual Responsiblity, Individual Benevolence


'''Societal Policy''' is what we should enact in law and enforce under threat of imprisonment (or other coercive measure). To me, this is the loosest number. Ballpark, I would say it is something like half of what we think we can measure. You can't have a law that threatens me with removal of virtually all of my freedoms, unless you can show the behavior is really harmful to society.
Annualized deaths are based on June 2021 numbers. This is the trough of flu season and before the Delta variant has taken hold. It probably will not get better than this for the next 8 months.


'''Individual Responsibility''' is the threshold; what I should be able to expect of you as a rationally self-interested person, devoid of benevolence. This is what we think we can measure of where a person goes from being benevolent to malevolent.


'''Individual Benevolence''' is a higher bar than responsibility. It is the level at which you are "going the extra mile" for your society. For a rough starting point, we tend to see things 30% in our own favor (citation needed, but it came from an MBA who is mad for data). Therefore, to try to be in the benevolent category, I think a good starting point is doing 130% of what you think is neutrally good.
$10,000,000 is roughly the legal value of a wrongful death in the United States.
 
 
QALY stands for Quality Adjusted Life Year - this is a measure of the number of quality years a person has left relative to a randomly selected person. The QALY adjuster for COVID-19 is low because it mostly kills old people. The QALY adjuster for Swimming Pools is high, because swimming pools mostly kill children.
{| class="wikitable"
|+
!Name
!Region
!Region Population
!Annualized Deaths
!Life Value
!QALY Adjuster
!Annual Cost
!Annual Per Capita Cost
|-
|COVID-19
|Arizona
|7,520,000
|4,018
|$10,000,000
|0.33
|$13.26b
|$1,763
|-
|Suicide
|United States
|332,000,000
|48,334
|$10,000,000
|1.2
|$580.0b
|$1,746
|-
|COVID-19
|United States
|332,000,000
|127,838
|$10,000,000
|0.33
|$421.87b
|$1,271
|-
|Auto Accidents
|United States
|332,000,000
|37,000
|$10,000,000
|1.0
|$370.0b
|$1,114
|-
|Gun Non-Suicide
|United States
|332,000,000
|13,958
|$10,000,000
|1.2
|$167.50b
|$504
|-
|Swimming Pools
|United States
|332,000,000
|4,000
|$10,000,000
|1.5
|$60.0b
|$181
|}


= Core Stats =
= Core Stats =

Revision as of 03:26, 21 June 2021


This table shows a basic cost breakdown of COVID-19 compared to some other debated or regulated causes of death.


Annualized deaths are based on June 2021 numbers. This is the trough of flu season and before the Delta variant has taken hold. It probably will not get better than this for the next 8 months.


$10,000,000 is roughly the legal value of a wrongful death in the United States.


QALY stands for Quality Adjusted Life Year - this is a measure of the number of quality years a person has left relative to a randomly selected person. The QALY adjuster for COVID-19 is low because it mostly kills old people. The QALY adjuster for Swimming Pools is high, because swimming pools mostly kill children.

Name Region Region Population Annualized Deaths Life Value QALY Adjuster Annual Cost Annual Per Capita Cost
COVID-19 Arizona 7,520,000 4,018 $10,000,000 0.33 $13.26b $1,763
Suicide United States 332,000,000 48,334 $10,000,000 1.2 $580.0b $1,746
COVID-19 United States 332,000,000 127,838 $10,000,000 0.33 $421.87b $1,271
Auto Accidents United States 332,000,000 37,000 $10,000,000 1.0 $370.0b $1,114
Gun Non-Suicide United States 332,000,000 13,958 $10,000,000 1.2 $167.50b $504
Swimming Pools United States 332,000,000 4,000 $10,000,000 1.5 $60.0b $181

Core Stats

Value of a US life: $10MM (source)

US Population: 332MM

US Suicide

Annual US Suicides: 48,334 (2018)

Annual US Suicide Cost: $480b

Annual US Suicide Cost Per Capita: $1,446

US Cars

Annual US Car Deaths: 37,000

Annual US Car Death Cost: $370b

Annual US Car Death Cost Per Capita: $1,114

US Guns

Annual US Gun Non-Suicides: 13,958 (homicide, accident, police, undetermined)

Annual US Gun Non-Suicide Cost: $140b

Annual US Gun Non-Suicide Cost Per Capita: $422

US Swimming Pools

Annual US Drownings: 4,000 (mostly swimming pools)

Annual US Swimming Pool Death Cost: $40b

Annual US Swimming Pool Death Cost Per Capita: $120

US Masks

Annualized US COVID Deaths: 127,838 (June 2021, trough of flu season, Delta variant not dominant yet)

Annualized US COVID Death Cost: $1,278b

Annual US COVID Death Cost Per Capita: $3,855

AZ Masks

AZ COVID Deaths Per Day: 11 (June 2021, trough of flu season, Delta variant not dominant yet)

Annualized AZ COVID Deaths: 4,018 (June 2021, trough of flu season, Delta variant not dominant yet)

Annualized AZ cost of COVID Deaths: $40b

AZ Population: 7,520,103

Annualized AZ COVID Death Cost Per Capita: $5,319

AZ Benevolent Individual Cost: $6,915

If you live in Arizona, and you are choosing not to wear a mask in the grocery store or inside the gas station, to fit in the "benevolent" category, you need to show that the burden of wearing a mask, to you, is greater than $6,915 per year.

And I don't give any special dispensation for being rich, so if you make a lot of money, you need to go find some average people and show that their burden is greater than $6,915 per year.

Retrieved from "https://wiki.traxel.com/index.php?title=MaskMath&oldid=662"