Senate Balance 2020

Races That May Shift The Balance

Very Close Races (+2D?)

State	Incumbent Party	Polls	Poll Margin	Campaign Sites	Links	Notes
Alaska	Republican	37D, 45R	8R	I, R	Wikipedia	Limited polling data. Competitor is independent.
Georgia	Republican	44.5D, 46.0R	1.5R	D, R	Wikipedia	Georgia is generally safe for Republicans.
Iowa	Republican	47.0D, 44.2R	2.8D	D, R	Wikipedia
Montana	Republican	46.0D, 48.0R	2.0R	D, R	Wikipedia
North Carolina	Republican	46.3D, 42.5R	3.8D	D, R	Wikipedia	Tillis (R) has COVID-19, Cunningham (D) caught cheating.
South Carolina	Republican	43.5D, 46.8R	3.3R	D, R	Wikipedia	Lindsey Graham (R) is the well-known incumbent.

Close Races (+2D)

State	Incumbent Party	Polls	Poll Margin	Campaign Sites	Links	Notes
Colorado	Republican	50.5D, 40.5R	10.0D	D, R	Wikipedia
Kansas	Republican	43D, 50R	7R	D, R	Wikipedia	One recent poll.
Maine	Republican	46.2D, 41.8R	4.4D	D, R	Wikipedia	Susan Collins (R) is the well-known incumbent.
Michigan	Democrat	47.0D, 41.7R	5.3D	D, R	Wikipedia
New Mexico	Democrat	49D, 40R	9.0D	D, R	Wikipedia	limited polling data
Texas	Republican	42.2D, 48.2R	6.0R	D, R	Wikipedia	Early voter suppression in high population areas improving Republican chances.

Contribution Limits

Each individual can give a maximum of $2,800 per candidate. See the "Campaign Sites" column in the table above for a path to contributing.

Voting

Given the pandemic and the reduced number of polling places, you should vote early if you can to leave room for those who cannot vote early. With the questionable state of postal service and mail-in ballot counting, it is best to vote via early polling or drop-box.

1. Vote early at an ID-checking early polling place if possible.
2. Vote early at a drop box if that is not possible.
3. Vote on election day if neither is possible.
4. If none of those is possible, vote by mail as early as possible.

Possibility to Flip

Current Balance

Current balance is 53:47, meaning 3 net D-flips are needed for an even balance. The VP casts the tie-breaking vote, so either 4 or 2 net D-flips would result in a VP-proof majority, depending on your preferred side.

Probable to Flip

These states appear likely to flip with more than a 10 point margin for the competitor to the incumbent.

1. Alabama will flip from Democrat to Republican.
2. Arizona will flip from Republican to Democrat.

Close Races

See the "Close Races" tables, above.

Unlikely to Flip

These states are unlikely to flip, with the incumbent having a lead of greater than 10%.

1. New Hampshire (D)
2. Idaho (R)
3. Kentucky (R)
4. Minnesota (D)
5. Mississippi (R)
6. New Jersey (D)
7. Oklahoma (R)
8. Virginia (D)

Insufficient Data

The following states are having a Senate vote this year but did not have polling data readily available and will require more research:

1. Arkansas
2. Delaware
3. Illinois
4. Louisiana
5. Massachusetts
6. Nebraska
7. Oregon
8. Rhode Island
9. South Dakota
10. Tennessee
11. West Virginia
12. Wyoming

A brief look suggests these are not heavily polled because they are secure with the incumbent party.