Senate Balance 2020: Difference between revisions
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Contributions | = Contributions = | ||
Each individual can give a maximum of $2,800 per candidate. | |||
= Voting = | |||
Given the pandemic and the reduced number of polling places, you should vote early if you can to leave room for those who cannot vote early. With the questionable state of postal service and mail-in ballot counting, it is best to vote via early polling or drop-box. | |||
# Vote early at an ID-checking early polling place if possible. | # Vote early at an ID-checking early polling place if possible. | ||
Revision as of 20:13, 27 September 2020
Contributions
Each individual can give a maximum of $2,800 per candidate.
Voting
Given the pandemic and the reduced number of polling places, you should vote early if you can to leave room for those who cannot vote early. With the questionable state of postal service and mail-in ballot counting, it is best to vote via early polling or drop-box.
- Vote early at an ID-checking early polling place if possible.
- Vote early at a drop box if that is not possible.
- Vote on election day if neither is possible.
- If none of those is possible, vote by mail as early as possible.
Races That May Shift The Balance
| State | Incumbent Party | Polls | Poll Margin | Campaign Sites | Links | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Republican | tied | ? | I, R | Wikipedia | Limited polling data. Competitor is independent. |
| Georgia | Republican | 42.4D, 44.4R | 2.0R | D, R | Wikipedia | Georgia is generally safe for Republicans. |
| Iowa | Republican | 44.8D, 44.8R | 0 | D, R | Wikipedia | |
| Kansas | Republican | 44D, 46R | 2.0R | D, R | Wikipedia | limited polling data |
| Montana | Republican | 45.5D, 47.5R | 2.0R | D, R | Wikipedia | |
| South Carolina | Republican | 46.5D, 47.0R | 0.5R | D, R | Wikipedia | Lindsey Graham (R) is the well-known incumbent. |
| State | Incumbent Party | Polls | Poll Margin | Campaign Sites | Links | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | Republican | 50.7D, 43.3R | 7.4D | D, R | Wikipedia | |
| Maine | Republican | 48.4D, 43.0R | 5.4D | D, R | Wikipedia | Susan Collins (R) is the well-known incumbent. |
| Michigan | Democrat | 46.8D, 41.6R | 5.2D | D, R | Wikipedia | |
| New Mexico | Democrat | 49D, 40R | 9.0D | D, R | Wikipedia | limited polling data |
| North Carolina | Republican | 47.2D, 41.2R | 6.0D | D, R | Wikipedia | |
| Texas | Republican | 39.8D, 45.6R | 5.8R | D, R | Wikipedia | John Cornyn (R) is the well-known incumbent. |
Possibility to Flip
Current balance is 53:47, meaning 3 are needed for an even balance. The VP casts the tie-breaking vote, so one more is needed on the appropriate side for a VP-proof majority.
Probable to Flip
These states appear likely to flip with more than a 10 point margin for the competitor to the incumbent.
- Alabama will flip from Democrat to Republican.
- Arizona will flip from Republican to Democrat.
Close Races
These are the states that appear in the "Close Races" tables, above.
Unlikely to Flip
These states are unlikely to flip, with the incumbent having a lead of greater than 10%.
- New Hampshire (D)
- Idaho (R)
- Kentucky (R)
- Minnesota (D)
- Mississippi (R)
- New Jersey (D)
- Oklahoma (R)
- Virginia (D)
Insufficient Data
Additionally, the following states are having a Senate vote this year but did not have polling data readily available and will require more research:
- Arkansas
- Delaware
- Illinois
- Louisiana
- Massachusetts
- Nebraska
- Oregon
- Rhode Island
- South Dakota
- Tennessee
- West Virginia
- Wyoming
FWIW, I think these are not heavily polled because they are secure with the incumbent party.