Senate Balance 2020: Difference between revisions

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We can all agree that this is the most important election of our lifetimes. I ''hate'' that advertising sways elections, but it does. Each individual can give a maximum of $2,800 per candidate. This election is going to have a massive impact on the future of the United States. Contributing $16,800 to the six candidates under "Very Close Races" won't necessarily have the same ROI as putting it in the stock market, but if they win, you'll get a lot more than $16,800 net yield over the next half decade.
We can all agree that this is the most important election of our lifetimes. I ''hate'' that advertising sways elections, but it does. Each individual can give a maximum of $2,800 per candidate. This election is going to have a massive impact on the future of the United States.


Both sides have cast doubt on the results of the election. It is critical that you '''''VOTE''''' and get everyone you know to vote. Given the pandemic and the reduced number of polling places, it is also important that you avoid the polls on election day if you can, to leave room for those who cannot vote early. Finally, there is some question about whether mail-in votes will arrive in time and whether they will be counted, so get your ballot to your state officials by other means if you can.
Both sides have cast doubt on the results of the election. It is critical that you '''''VOTE''''' and get everyone you know to vote. Given the pandemic and the reduced number of polling places, it is also important that you avoid the polls on election day if you can, to leave room for those who cannot vote early. Finally, there is some question about whether mail-in votes will arrive in time and whether they will be counted, so get your ballot to your state officials by other means if you can.

Revision as of 20:09, 27 September 2020

We can all agree that this is the most important election of our lifetimes. I hate that advertising sways elections, but it does. Each individual can give a maximum of $2,800 per candidate. This election is going to have a massive impact on the future of the United States.

Both sides have cast doubt on the results of the election. It is critical that you VOTE and get everyone you know to vote. Given the pandemic and the reduced number of polling places, it is also important that you avoid the polls on election day if you can, to leave room for those who cannot vote early. Finally, there is some question about whether mail-in votes will arrive in time and whether they will be counted, so get your ballot to your state officials by other means if you can.

  1. Vote early at an ID-checking early polling place if possible.
  2. Vote early at a drop box if that is not possible.
  3. Vote on election day if neither is possible.
  4. If none of those is possible, vote by mail as early as possible.

Races That May Shift The Balance

Very Close Races
State Incumbent Party Polls Poll Margin Campaign Sites Links Notes
Alaska Republican tied ? I, R Wikipedia Limited polling data. Competitor is independent.
Georgia Republican 42.4D, 44.4R 2.0R D, R Wikipedia Georgia is generally safe for Republicans.
Iowa Republican 44.8D, 44.8R 0 D, R Wikipedia
Kansas Republican 44D, 46R 2.0R D, R Wikipedia limited polling data
Montana Republican 45.5D, 47.5R 2.0R D, R Wikipedia
South Carolina Republican 46.5D, 47.0R 0.5R D, R Wikipedia Lindsey Graham (R) is the well-known incumbent.
Close Races
State Incumbent Party Polls Poll Margin Campaign Sites Links Notes
Colorado Republican 50.7D, 43.3R 7.4D D, R Wikipedia
Maine Republican 48.4D, 43.0R 5.4D D, R Wikipedia Susan Collins (R) is the well-known incumbent.
Michigan Democrat 46.8D, 41.6R 5.2D D, R Wikipedia
New Mexico Democrat 49D, 40R 9.0D D, R Wikipedia limited polling data
North Carolina Republican 47.2D, 41.2R 6.0D D, R Wikipedia
Texas Republican 39.8D, 45.6R 5.8R D, R Wikipedia John Cornyn (R) is the well-known incumbent.

Possibility to Flip

Current balance is 53:47, meaning 3 are needed for an even balance. The VP casts the tie-breaking vote, so one more is needed on the appropriate side for a VP-proof majority.

Probable to Flip

These states appear likely to flip with more than a 10 point margin for the competitor to the incumbent.

  1. Alabama will flip from Democrat to Republican.
  2. Arizona will flip from Republican to Democrat.

Close Races

These are the states that appear in the "Close Races" tables, above.

Unlikely to Flip

These states are unlikely to flip, with the incumbent having a lead of greater than 10%.

  1. New Hampshire (D)
  2. Idaho (R)
  3. Kentucky (R)
  4. Minnesota (D)
  5. Mississippi (R)
  6. New Jersey (D)
  7. Oklahoma (R)
  8. Virginia (D)

Insufficient Data

Additionally, the following states are having a Senate vote this year but did not have polling data readily available and will require more research:

  1. Arkansas
  2. Delaware
  3. Illinois
  4. Louisiana
  5. Massachusetts
  6. Nebraska
  7. Oregon
  8. Rhode Island
  9. South Dakota
  10. Tennessee
  11. West Virginia
  12. Wyoming

FWIW, I think these are not heavily polled because they are secure with the incumbent party.

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